{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d69f1d5-50c4-40b9-bc72-141b51aa30cb", "symbol": "MTF-F33", "name": "Migdal Mutual Funds Ltd. - MTF SAL (4D) RUSSELL 2000", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.737, "architecture_energy": 62.912, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.797, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.77, "rotation_up": 27.96, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 44.26, "downward_expansion": 65.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 81.333333, 80.824182, 1986.691095, 3338.36329 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 81.37, "trend_reference": 4898.292667, "distance_from_trend": -0.983388, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6461.966538, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987408, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.77206, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.988914, "excess_performance": -1.017814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983388, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326933, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987408, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.080831, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987721, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.784766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.988914, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.128886, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57182, "relative_activity": 1.378815, "balance": 1.128886, "dry_up": 1.583333, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.551044, "annualized_volatility": 6.350983, "from_high_reference": -0.989432, "from_low_reference": 0.082768 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4898.292667, "fair_value_reference": 6461.966538, "structural_low": 75.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.000966, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.016374, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.066771, "worst_return": -0.095145, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025591, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.051436, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.089694, "worst_return": -0.988804, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.011345, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.173352, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.061808, "worst_return": -0.133999, 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5377.961667, "fair_value": 6542.249038, "relative_strength": -98.861215, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.618031, "energy": 67.515132, "activity_lines": [ 81.074667, 477.423455, 2772.213286, 4006.609226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 81.56, "volume": 69591, "typical_volume": 40890.35, "trend": 5142.780333, "fair_value": 6502.009038, "relative_strength": -98.797035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.194354, "energy": 66.828777, "activity_lines": [ 81.266, 213.709818, 2362.967333, 3664.905892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.37, "volume": 57182, "typical_volume": 41471.85, "trend": 4898.292667, "fair_value": 6461.966538, "relative_strength": -98.77206, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.737422, "energy": 62.911856, "activity_lines": [ 81.333333, 80.824182, 1986.691095, 3338.36329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }