{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d6a5c7f-2d02-4a83-97c9-794a669404f9", "symbol": "UST1F", "name": "UBS Core BBG US Treasury 1-3 UCITS ETF hEUR dis", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 75.069, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -9.378, "architecture_energy": 5.241, "architecture_maturity": 36.82, "architecture_confidence": 72.837, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 70.28, "rotation_up": 24.68, "upward_expansion": 26.45, "deceleration": 42.72, "rotation_down": 26.09, "downward_expansion": 46.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.589867, 9.588636, 9.588419, 9.592649 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 9.602, "trend_reference": 9.599358, "distance_from_trend": 0.000275, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.363259, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025498, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.371408, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002473, "excess_performance": -0.173364, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.000275, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000373, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025498, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005826, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.143714, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024079, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002473, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.557888, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4770, "relative_activity": 0.554187, "balance": 0.557888, "dry_up": 0.965471, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003052, "annualized_volatility": 0.015067, "from_high_reference": -0.005798, "from_low_reference": 0.011589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.599358, "fair_value_reference": 9.363259, "structural_low": 9.492, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000412, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.01123, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.00537, "worst_return": -0.006485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.010761, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033846, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.01179, "worst_return": -0.000104, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.00941, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.083819, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.017462, "worst_return": 0.001357, 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9.585473, 9.58761, 9.593473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.585, "volume": 15690, "typical_volume": 9234.4, "trend": 9.599434, "fair_value": 9.359241, "relative_strength": -12.396838, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.576408, "energy": 18.046521, "activity_lines": [ 9.5848, 9.585673, 9.587167, 9.592483 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.602, "volume": 4770, "typical_volume": 8607.2, "trend": 9.599358, "fair_value": 9.363259, "relative_strength": -14.371408, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -9.378397, "energy": 5.240933, "activity_lines": [ 9.589867, 9.588636, 9.588419, 9.592649 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }