{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d6b46c6-547f-4ea4-af38-d9d645817686", "symbol": "CTO", "name": "CTO Realty Growth Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.701, "architecture_energy": 54.095, "architecture_maturity": 54.718, "architecture_confidence": 77.638, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.13, "rotation_up": 59.46, "upward_expansion": 81.68, "deceleration": 65.7, "rotation_down": 20.85, "downward_expansion": 8.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.890667, 21.693316, 21.057061, 20.46852 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.75, "trend_reference": 19.675127, "distance_from_trend": 0.105457, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.310301, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.333513, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.095514, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.215306, "excess_performance": 0.089681, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.105457, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080356, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.333513, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060321, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070955, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.025299, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.215306, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.860689, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2032326, "relative_activity": 1.232435, "balance": 0.860689, "dry_up": 1.007976, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04275, "annualized_volatility": 0.1849, "from_high_reference": -0.042272, "from_low_reference": 0.53194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.675127, "fair_value_reference": 16.310301, "structural_low": 17.593478, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.013285, "positive_rate": 0.65625, "directional_follow_through": 0.65625, "median_excess_return": 0.004019, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.156106, "worst_return": -0.075443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.033905, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.07389, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.223017, "worst_return": -0.055437, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05602, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.081435, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.255959, "worst_return": -0.090762, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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16.097772, "relative_strength": 8.749816, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.859013, "energy": 75.06372, "activity_lines": [ 21.338667, 20.935169, 20.295917, 19.777647 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.22, "volume": 1344450, "typical_volume": 1609344.0, "trend": 19.234021, "fair_value": 16.151824, "relative_strength": 14.913857, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.526718, "energy": 80.261043, "activity_lines": [ 21.67, 21.229213, 20.532298, 19.980665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.0, "volume": 1347423, "typical_volume": 1570301.2, "trend": 19.390371, "fair_value": 16.206612, "relative_strength": 14.112788, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.111725, "energy": 67.427764, "activity_lines": [ 21.842, 21.441556, 20.731218, 20.159115 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.97, "volume": 1924544, "typical_volume": 1600918.9, "trend": 19.533849, "fair_value": 16.259062, "relative_strength": 12.325928, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.651456, "energy": 58.635347, "activity_lines": [ 21.910667, 21.60521, 20.913152, 20.325542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.75, "volume": 2032326, "typical_volume": 1649032.55, "trend": 19.675127, "fair_value": 16.310301, "relative_strength": 7.095514, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.700687, "energy": 54.094967, "activity_lines": [ 21.890667, 21.693316, 21.057061, 20.46852 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }