{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d72ce16-e1f8-4e81-adaf-1b5ceb738388", "symbol": "RND", "name": "Rand Mining Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -85.794, "architecture_energy": 82.524, "architecture_maturity": 21.221, "architecture_confidence": 79.26, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.17, "rotation_up": 9.08, "upward_expansion": 17.5, "deceleration": 37.31, "rotation_down": 81.02, "downward_expansion": 93.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.264667, 2.313273, 2.354238, 2.384538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.18, "trend_reference": 2.464, "distance_from_trend": -0.11526, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.783833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.222087, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.000935, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.215827, "excess_performance": -0.279533, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.11526, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008717, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.222087, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266456, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140009, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.23663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.215827, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.285869, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18693, "relative_activity": 2.252779, "balance": 0.285869, "dry_up": 1.10078, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036697, "annualized_volatility": 0.245096, "from_high_reference": -0.248276, "from_low_reference": 0.322962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.464, "fair_value_reference": 1.783833, "structural_low": 2.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.023078, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": -0.006188, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.116, "worst_return": -0.090226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.033333, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.023915, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.096, "worst_return": -0.038462, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.053846, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.017114, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.138063, "worst_return": 0.0449, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.013477, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.221052, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049402, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057377, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.056522, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0553, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029412, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.091667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.102579, "volume": 4379, "typical_volume": 71339.95, "trend": 1.096006, "fair_value": 1.196233, "relative_strength": -2.947521, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.772262, 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2.473462 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 2.39, "volume": 999, "typical_volume": 12547.7, "trend": 2.496, "fair_value": 1.71797, "relative_strength": 2.24611, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.632889, "energy": 13.680042, "activity_lines": [ 2.436667, 2.426364, 2.419143, 2.46686 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 2.44, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11143.55, "trend": 2.497333, "fair_value": 1.727005, "relative_strength": 3.821007, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.378948, "energy": 13.005633, "activity_lines": [ 2.437333, 2.433818, 2.414524, 2.463247 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 2.39, "volume": 1283, "typical_volume": 10135.55, "trend": 2.495667, "fair_value": 1.735747, "relative_strength": 1.942297, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.8683, "energy": 25.193708, "activity_lines": [ 2.422, 2.428909, 2.406857, 2.456323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.4, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 9342.9, "trend": 2.494333, "fair_value": 1.744499, "relative_strength": 1.068156, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.550139, "energy": 35.945121, "activity_lines": [ 2.410667, 2.424, 2.402, 2.450151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.31, "volume": 4107, "typical_volume": 8653.75, "trend": 2.490333, "fair_value": 1.75262, "relative_strength": -2.654528, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.967935, "energy": 51.619044, "activity_lines": [ 2.372667, 2.402364, 2.39081, 2.438258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.31, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 8506.85, "trend": 2.490333, "fair_value": 1.76074, "relative_strength": -2.92242, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.446901, "energy": 63.465336, "activity_lines": [ 2.347333, 2.382, 2.382238, 2.426624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.34, "volume": 6878, "typical_volume": 8337.75, "trend": 2.486, "fair_value": 1.769107, "relative_strength": -1.814321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.664231, "energy": 62.207636, "activity_lines": [ 2.337333, 2.370364, 2.378857, 2.416925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.28, "volume": 10965, "typical_volume": 7952.5, "trend": 2.476, "fair_value": 1.776927, "relative_strength": -6.934956, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.03621, "energy": 70.806474, "activity_lines": [ 2.314, 2.349818, 2.370905, 2.403634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.18, "volume": 18693, "typical_volume": 8297.75, "trend": 2.464, "fair_value": 1.783833, "relative_strength": -14.000935, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.79447, "energy": 82.523976, "activity_lines": [ 2.264667, 2.313273, 2.354238, 2.384538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }