{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d7a0b63-175f-481b-9f6e-2c481eb30559", "symbol": "CEG", "name": "Constellation Energy Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -36.554, "architecture_energy": 17.526, "architecture_maturity": 49.418, "architecture_confidence": 80.056, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.71, "rotation_up": 25.1, "upward_expansion": 17.72, "deceleration": 45.14, "rotation_down": 31.83, "downward_expansion": 58.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 265.310667, 261.278545, 268.651445, 275.273862 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 269.89, "trend_reference": 282.379376, "distance_from_trend": -0.044229, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 240.220465, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.12351, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.280882, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035413, "excess_performance": -0.15204, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.044229, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098734, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.12351, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219388, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.242809, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026766, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035413, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.668442, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16768553, "relative_activity": 1.027388, "balance": 0.668442, "dry_up": 0.87834, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.104048, "annualized_volatility": 0.494953, "from_high_reference": -0.343379, "from_low_reference": 0.180466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 282.379376, "fair_value_reference": 240.220465, "structural_low": 228.63, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.059791, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.016578, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.303097, "worst_return": -0.050601, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.237582, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.038114, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.546066, "worst_return": -0.070901, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.773946, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.473691, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.773946, "worst_return": 0.773946, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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284.651752 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 251.38, "volume": 14543132, "typical_volume": 16777661.95, "trend": 294.416174, "fair_value": 235.961554, "relative_strength": -31.912806, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.135504, "energy": 48.417481, "activity_lines": [ 253.856, 261.183566, 274.538115, 281.661083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 252.39, "volume": 13266512, "typical_volume": 16427217.35, "trend": 291.016984, "fair_value": 236.9727, "relative_strength": -28.104854, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.48979, "energy": 49.596542, "activity_lines": [ 252.488, 258.173273, 271.456814, 278.949717 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 274.35, "volume": 13278779, "typical_volume": 16255671.0, "trend": 288.181619, "fair_value": 238.130016, "relative_strength": -20.045253, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.862961, "energy": 35.956441, "activity_lines": [ 258.531333, 260.078545, 270.831371, 277.874428 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 262.75, "volume": 14029615, "typical_volume": 16250360.95, "trend": 284.767148, "fair_value": 239.161469, "relative_strength": -23.159691, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.986403, "energy": 24.70806, "activity_lines": [ 260.688667, 259.744727, 269.309648, 276.233678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 269.89, "volume": 16768553, "typical_volume": 16321540.3, "trend": 282.379376, "fair_value": 240.220465, "relative_strength": -24.280882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.553951, "energy": 17.526128, "activity_lines": [ 265.310667, 261.278545, 268.651445, 275.273862 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }