{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d7f6426-aa58-4ee7-b849-4258c05f9cb3", "symbol": "H15", "name": "Hotel Properties Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.396, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.903, "architecture_energy": 38.657, "architecture_maturity": 39.855, "architecture_confidence": 92.949, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.69, "rotation_up": 16.67, "upward_expansion": 5.1, "deceleration": 45.33, "rotation_down": 52.37, "downward_expansion": 76.1 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.573333, 4.581636, 4.590514, 4.60711 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.54, "trend_reference": 4.647752, "distance_from_trend": -0.023184, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.012932, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.131342, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.553993, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.055848, "excess_performance": -0.210683, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023184, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00414, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.131342, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052685, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.19554, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082826, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.055848, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.911227, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 62000, "relative_activity": 0.978535, "balance": 0.911227, "dry_up": 0.885417, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01508, "annualized_volatility": 0.109767, "from_high_reference": -0.170446, "from_low_reference": 0.040713 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.647752, "fair_value_reference": 4.012932, "structural_low": 4.392137, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.005602, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.003567, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.241233, "worst_return": -0.017022, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.025429, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.02457, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.207455, "worst_return": -0.036797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.026179, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.062105, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.509319, "worst_return": 0.004254, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.151584, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044716, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012793, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049784, 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27.103951, "activity_lines": [ 4.591333, 4.592545, 4.595009, 4.622609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.58, "volume": 58900, "typical_volume": 63270.0, "trend": 4.65308, "fair_value": 3.999355, "relative_strength": -18.777411, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.052341, "energy": 26.206398, "activity_lines": [ 4.588, 4.589636, 4.593656, 4.617872 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.6, "volume": 63500, "typical_volume": 63545.0, "trend": 4.653729, "fair_value": 4.006398, "relative_strength": -18.247648, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.120456, "energy": 18.814382, "activity_lines": [ 4.591333, 4.591091, 4.594823, 4.614447 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.54, "volume": 62000, "typical_volume": 63360.0, "trend": 4.647752, "fair_value": 4.012932, "relative_strength": -19.553993, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.902659, "energy": 38.656662, "activity_lines": [ 4.573333, 4.581636, 4.590514, 4.60711 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }