{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d82e2ea-8763-4beb-89b3-23d7f9cd7554", "symbol": "PRA", "name": "Purpose Diversified Real Asset Fund Series ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 79.851, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.733, "architecture_energy": 63.078, "architecture_maturity": 7.007, "architecture_confidence": 71.383, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.38, "rotation_up": 72.27, "upward_expansion": 84.96, "deceleration": 47.93, "rotation_down": 9.2, "downward_expansion": 11.63 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.040001, 39.62652, 39.548239, 39.32263 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 40.130001, "trend_reference": 38.676151, "distance_from_trend": 0.03759, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.731508, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349747, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.455092, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.124827, "excess_performance": 0.004406, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03759, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064567, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349747, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045707, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004551, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067382, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.124827, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.645288, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 24300, "relative_activity": 0.817494, "balance": 3.645288, "dry_up": 1.042893, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017837, "annualized_volatility": 0.118687, "from_high_reference": -0.014438, "from_low_reference": 0.375032 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.676151, "fair_value_reference": 29.731508, "structural_low": 35.676605, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.01125, "positive_rate": 0.657143, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -0.0052, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.122277, "worst_return": -0.059979, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.032568, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.008505, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.207317, "worst_return": -0.138846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.069206, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.014265, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.255948, "worst_return": -0.084088, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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38.710845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 39.189999, "volume": 105000, "typical_volume": 34760.0, "trend": 37.715184, "fair_value": 29.338372, "relative_strength": 1.507267, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.818282, "energy": 17.645658, "activity_lines": [ 38.911109, 39.076365, 39.289308, 38.821159 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.349998, "volume": 25300, "typical_volume": 33740.0, "trend": 37.956891, "fair_value": 29.432265, "relative_strength": 1.962836, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.344523, "energy": 13.149601, "activity_lines": [ 39.063387, 39.092817, 39.299964, 38.926631 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 40.580002, "volume": 31800, "typical_volume": 29560.0, "trend": 38.225103, "fair_value": 29.532571, "relative_strength": 4.690469, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.357958, "energy": 45.120595, "activity_lines": [ 39.63, 39.339152, 39.422965, 39.095864 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.080002, "volume": 42600, "typical_volume": 29975.0, "trend": 38.470018, "fair_value": 29.63185, "relative_strength": 3.703412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.778798, "energy": 48.539558, "activity_lines": [ 39.881334, 39.47882, 39.48608, 39.215535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 40.130001, "volume": 24300, "typical_volume": 29725.0, "trend": 38.676151, "fair_value": 29.731508, "relative_strength": 0.455092, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.732913, "energy": 63.078025, "activity_lines": [ 40.040001, 39.62652, 39.548239, 39.32263 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }