{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d83351d-54f5-4487-a109-0661fe934dd6", "symbol": "600778", "name": "Xinjiang Youhao(Group)Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.874, "architecture_energy": 51.581, "architecture_maturity": 83.434, "architecture_confidence": 92.4, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.22, "rotation_up": 25.43, "upward_expansion": 8.43, "deceleration": 60.7, "rotation_down": 52.79, "downward_expansion": 81.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.104667, 5.132364, 5.56019, 5.868667 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.37, "trend_reference": 6.275667, "distance_from_trend": -0.144314, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.021154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.108144, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.231138, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.26539, "excess_performance": -0.222186, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144314, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.078959, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.108144, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.247531, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172311, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121211, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26539, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.281121, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34594500, "relative_activity": 1.145451, "balance": 0.281121, "dry_up": 1.341391, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092107, "annualized_volatility": 0.383541, "from_high_reference": -0.384174, "from_low_reference": 0.164859 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.275667, "fair_value_reference": 6.021154, "structural_low": 4.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.006379, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.017524, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.253333, "worst_return": -0.151429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.073171, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.026305, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.350711, "worst_return": -0.210608, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.226791, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.146134, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.322967, "worst_return": -0.271777, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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6.076603, "relative_strength": -25.022346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.166038, "energy": 89.408772, "activity_lines": [ 5.156667, 5.525091, 5.94981, 6.221849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.05, "volume": 43461700, "typical_volume": 30329524.6, "trend": 6.476667, "fair_value": 6.065385, "relative_strength": -20.062843, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.316573, "energy": 84.949791, "activity_lines": [ 5.084667, 5.373273, 5.836286, 6.126989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.68, "volume": 46812638, "typical_volume": 30112411.85, "trend": 6.388333, "fair_value": 6.05109, "relative_strength": -26.363234, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.055221, "energy": 76.015603, "activity_lines": [ 4.936, 5.189636, 5.697905, 6.011075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.13, "volume": 37179984, "typical_volume": 30185803.85, "trend": 6.319, "fair_value": 6.036218, "relative_strength": -19.17541, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.769664, "energy": 60.731406, "activity_lines": [ 4.988, 5.125818, 5.613381, 5.929892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.37, "volume": 34594500, "typical_volume": 30201631.55, "trend": 6.275667, "fair_value": 6.021154, "relative_strength": -17.231138, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.873938, "energy": 51.580994, "activity_lines": [ 5.104667, 5.132364, 5.56019, 5.868667 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }