{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d8e3911-9201-4bc8-b5d2-7c022dd1e485", "symbol": "MAN", "name": "Mandrake Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.032, "architecture_energy": 47.708, "architecture_maturity": 43.273, "architecture_confidence": 91.898, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.99, "rotation_up": 16.72, "upward_expansion": 8.53, "deceleration": 42.02, "rotation_down": 59.66, "downward_expansion": 84.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0204, 0.020709, 0.020924, 0.021331 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.02, "trend_reference": 0.022, "distance_from_trend": -0.090909, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.027022, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.259874, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.023152, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.090909, "excess_performance": -0.154615, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.090909, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028698, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.259874, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012207, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.150232, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.10667, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.090909, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.101099, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2453111, "relative_activity": 1.029689, "balance": 1.101099, "dry_up": 1.128277, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.067308, "annualized_volatility": 0.357126, "from_high_reference": -0.310345, "from_low_reference": 0.052632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.022, "fair_value_reference": 0.027022, "structural_low": 0.019, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.02439, "positive_rate": 0.365854, "directional_follow_through": 0.536585, "median_excess_return": -0.021327, "regime_survival": 0.853659, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.184211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.043246, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.305556, "worst_return": -0.208333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.135576, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.103661, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.222222, "worst_return": -0.307692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 22.383806, "activity_lines": [ 0.021067, 0.021036, 0.021233, 0.021684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.021, "volume": 1299195, "typical_volume": 2179983.45, "trend": 0.022183, "fair_value": 0.027337, "relative_strength": -6.239061, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.096445, "energy": 26.750241, "activity_lines": [ 0.021, 0.021036, 0.021181, 0.021608 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.02, "volume": 4821487, "typical_volume": 2327240.15, "trend": 0.0221, "fair_value": 0.027176, "relative_strength": -12.53266, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.604631, "energy": 42.320639, "activity_lines": [ 0.020667, 0.020873, 0.021043, 0.021467 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.02, "volume": 2453111, "typical_volume": 2382379.65, "trend": 0.022, "fair_value": 0.027022, "relative_strength": -15.023152, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.031568, "energy": 47.707707, "activity_lines": [ 0.0204, 0.020709, 0.020924, 0.021331 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }