{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d8e47a2-56a8-4874-9277-f1becc224fa8", "symbol": "002094", "name": "Qingdao Kingking Applied Chemistry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.855, "architecture_energy": 57.607, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 73.419, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.14, "rotation_up": 27.74, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 50.82, "downward_expansion": 74.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.534, 4.516182, 4.891095, 5.373441 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.73, "trend_reference": 6.094, "distance_from_trend": -0.223827, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.381731, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121101, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.106718, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.459429, "excess_performance": -0.466828, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.223827, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13593, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121101, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.300913, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.341067, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024652, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.459429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.358547, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 95695807, "relative_activity": 1.352924, "balance": 0.358547, "dry_up": 1.485732, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076435, "annualized_volatility": 0.320567, "from_high_reference": -0.502105, "from_low_reference": 0.139759 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.094, "fair_value_reference": 5.381731, "structural_low": 4.15, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.011594, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": -0.015332, "regime_survival": 0.826087, "best_return": 0.143791, "worst_return": -0.200893, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01337, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.004878, "worst_return": -0.338906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.002571, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.058301, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.726829, "worst_return": -0.271465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.848989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.33, "volume": 105641040, "typical_volume": 74359661.45, "trend": 6.376333, "fair_value": 5.366923, "relative_strength": -40.443141, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.57063, "energy": 71.19209, "activity_lines": [ 4.404, 4.623455, 5.176381, 5.711118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.2, "volume": 102472549, "typical_volume": 71319869.55, "trend": 6.276333, "fair_value": 5.370192, "relative_strength": -41.258412, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.700553, "energy": 70.940226, "activity_lines": [ 4.322, 4.502727, 5.035381, 5.57071 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.68, "volume": 116549100, "typical_volume": 71648761.8, "trend": 6.191333, "fair_value": 5.376026, "relative_strength": -32.460885, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.940076, "energy": 65.132086, "activity_lines": [ 4.430667, 4.497818, 4.955095, 5.46772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.73, "volume": 95695807, "typical_volume": 70732578.05, "trend": 6.094, "fair_value": 5.381731, "relative_strength": -34.106718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.854831, "energy": 57.607009, "activity_lines": [ 4.534, 4.516182, 4.891095, 5.373441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }