{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d8e6970-a833-459e-acf6-d729df36eb94", "symbol": "TRM", "name": "Truscott Mining Corporation Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -95.321, "architecture_energy": 97.965, "architecture_maturity": 42.0, "architecture_confidence": 72.097, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 8.61, "upward_expansion": 21.81, "deceleration": 37.06, "rotation_down": 90.27, "downward_expansion": 99.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.044333, 0.049091, 0.059357, 0.065809 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.04, "trend_reference": 0.0728, "distance_from_trend": -0.450549, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.065033, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.38493, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.059446, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.518072, "excess_performance": -0.581778, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.450549, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110749, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.38493, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.609977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.470594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.575322, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.518072, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 221540, "relative_activity": 5.008987, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.581232, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.073077, "annualized_volatility": 0.445921, "from_high_reference": -0.555556, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0728, "fair_value_reference": 0.065033, "structural_low": 0.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.025356, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.002538, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.361702, "worst_return": -0.216667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.327674, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.327839, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.55102, "worst_return": -0.183333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.3, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.23923, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.424242, "worst_return": 0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.4, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.344898, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.757576, "worst_return": 0.35, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0798, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102564, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.178082, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.180556, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.288136, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088608, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069767, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.012821, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.466667, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.041, "volume": 157518, "typical_volume": 165846.0, "trend": 0.057183, "fair_value": 0.037337, "relative_strength": -17.410356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -99.416949, "energy": 99.775639, "activity_lines": [ 0.066, 0.070582, 0.075419, 0.077667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 0.05, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 52818.9, "trend": 0.078867, "fair_value": 0.064886, "relative_strength": -31.237463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -99.752729, "energy": 99.903124, "activity_lines": [ 0.059667, 0.066291, 0.072633, 0.075731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.048, "volume": 61133, "typical_volume": 55875.55, "trend": 0.077667, "fair_value": 0.064931, "relative_strength": -33.659751, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.117887, "energy": 99.339914, "activity_lines": [ 0.054333, 0.062182, 0.069829, 0.07374 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.048, "volume": 80884, "typical_volume": 33343.1, "trend": 0.0763, "fair_value": 0.064976, "relative_strength": -33.568034, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.89121, "energy": 96.461096, "activity_lines": [ 0.0508, 0.058618, 0.067205, 0.071826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.047, "volume": 60000, "typical_volume": 30029.45, "trend": 0.0749, "fair_value": 0.065014, "relative_strength": -34.672898, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.724694, "energy": 94.291311, "activity_lines": [ 0.048733, 0.055418, 0.064667, 0.069935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.045, "volume": 94232, "typical_volume": 33707.1, "trend": 0.074067, "fair_value": 0.065046, "relative_strength": -38.735398, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.609349, "energy": 94.592075, "activity_lines": [ 0.046867, 0.052418, 0.062143, 0.068006 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.04, "volume": 221540, "typical_volume": 44228.5, "trend": 0.0728, "fair_value": 0.065033, "relative_strength": -47.059446, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -95.320604, "energy": 97.965286, "activity_lines": [ 0.044333, 0.049091, 0.059357, 0.065809 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }