{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9d9a8e6c-598a-4289-afa7-eafb91361606", "symbol": "DII-A", "name": "Dorel Industries Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -90.137, "architecture_energy": 92.92, "architecture_maturity": 50.604, "architecture_confidence": 77.315, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.8, "rotation_up": 8.94, "upward_expansion": 20.52, "deceleration": 37.9, "rotation_down": 88.16, "downward_expansion": 98.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.626, 1.706545, 1.767333, 1.872559 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.55, "trend_reference": 2.019667, "distance_from_trend": -0.232547, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.966346, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.609212, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.484342, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.392157, "excess_performance": -0.512578, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.232547, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084051, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.609212, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056258, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.324843, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.164848, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.392157, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.25, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.25, "dry_up": 1.25, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048635, "annualized_volatility": 0.566966, "from_high_reference": -0.6125, "from_low_reference": 0.040268 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.019667, "fair_value_reference": 3.966346, "structural_low": 1.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.483871, "directional_follow_through": 0.483871, "median_excess_return": -0.027408, "regime_survival": 0.806452, "best_return": 0.925862, "worst_return": -0.6, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.022377, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.093863, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.703448, "worst_return": -0.676, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.265306, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.265919, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.860935, "worst_return": -0.403306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"orange", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.734513, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060345, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.402985, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.179894, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.7, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 685.0, "trend": 4.762, "fair_value": 6.822759, "relative_strength": 10.309906, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.207374, "energy": 87.978382, 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"down", "direction": -62.505597, "energy": 65.228496, "activity_lines": [ 1.796, 1.830545, 2.017524, 2.072688 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 1.8, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 625.0, "trend": 2.181667, "fair_value": 4.170449, "relative_strength": -20.224633, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.394834, "energy": 65.024144, "activity_lines": [ 1.788, 1.822727, 1.984524, 2.046559 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 1.97, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 575.0, "trend": 2.114, "fair_value": 4.157308, "relative_strength": -13.995501, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.17485, "energy": 56.892227, "activity_lines": [ 1.842667, 1.846182, 1.969143, 2.032903 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1.97, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 210.0, "trend": 2.046333, "fair_value": 4.138846, "relative_strength": -14.045828, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.331211, "energy": 34.183683, "activity_lines": [ 1.892, 1.866909, 1.953905, 2.023613 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.78, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 210.0, "trend": 2.036333, "fair_value": 4.118526, "relative_strength": -21.98164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.631489, "energy": 51.376817, "activity_lines": [ 1.872667, 1.851636, 1.923333, 2.00643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.78, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 210.0, "trend": 2.027667, "fair_value": 4.098205, "relative_strength": -21.647618, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.394835, "energy": 51.657192, "activity_lines": [ 1.844667, 1.838364, 1.896429, 1.989892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.78, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 210.0, "trend": 2.033667, "fair_value": 4.077885, "relative_strength": -21.396591, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.232122, "energy": 86.489266, "activity_lines": [ 1.818, 1.827091, 1.87319, 1.973914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.78, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 210.0, "trend": 2.039667, "fair_value": 4.050705, "relative_strength": -21.060574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.72584, "energy": 88.418997, "activity_lines": [ 1.792667, 1.817818, 1.853619, 1.957548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.7, "volume": 100, "typical_volume": 215.0, "trend": 2.043, "fair_value": 4.023141, "relative_strength": -24.553312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.58317, "energy": 88.617108, "activity_lines": [ 1.753333, 1.796, 1.830095, 1.935634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.55, "volume": 1300, "typical_volume": 280.0, "trend": 2.034667, "fair_value": 3.994103, "relative_strength": -30.565718, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.056412, "energy": 94.692025, "activity_lines": [ 1.682, 1.750364, 1.796333, 1.903828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.55, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 280.0, "trend": 2.019667, "fair_value": 3.966346, "relative_strength": -32.484342, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -90.1366, "energy": 92.920151, "activity_lines": [ 1.626, 1.706545, 1.767333, 1.872559 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }