{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9da80b0b-532a-4dfb-827b-4e3a36e34e33",
    "symbol": "JOPA3",
    "name": "JOSAPAR Joaquim Oliveira S.A. Participa\u00e7\u00f5es",
    "exchange": "SAO",
    "country": "BR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^BVSP",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "rotation_up",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up",
    "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -23.775,
    "architecture_energy": 37.502,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.348,
    "architecture_confidence": 63.583,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.",
        "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 40.67,
        "rotation_up": 43.03,
        "upward_expansion": 34.4,
        "deceleration": 47.33,
        "rotation_down": 22.38,
        "downward_expansion": 54.06
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        17.649333,
        17.514363,
        17.310471,
        17.83004
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 17.1,
    "trend_reference": 18.573899,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.079353,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 19.968255,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.143641,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -14.653005,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.13437,
    "excess_performance": -0.077322,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.079353,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.041517,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.143641,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012423,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.14653,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.119871,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.13437,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 3.538462,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 0,
      "relative_activity": 0.0,
      "balance": 3.538462,
      "dry_up": 1.0,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.018983,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.320979,
      "from_high_reference": -0.208342,
      "from_low_reference": 0.024498
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 18.573899,
      "fair_value_reference": 19.968255,
      "structural_low": 16.691095,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": -0.010555,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.082911,
        "regime_survival": 0.444444,
        "best_return": 0.142381,
        "worst_return": -0.124635,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.086957,
        "positive_rate": 0.2,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.2,
        "median_excess_return": -0.095522,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.056346,
        "worst_return": -0.212972,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.059127,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.070563,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.02535,
        "worst_return": -0.110745,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.061696,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.090159,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.020708,
        "worst_return": -0.102685,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-11-08",
        "end": "2024-11-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000476,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.004762,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-06-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.028321,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-06-13",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.000497,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2025-07-18",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.093983,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-07-25",
        "end": "2025-08-22",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-08-29",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.019503,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2026-02-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.000497,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-02-13",
        "end": "2026-03-06",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-13",
        "end": "2026-03-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2026-04-03",
        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.085562,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2026-05-01",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.087003,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.075676,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 1000.0,
        "trend": 20.047481,
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        "fair_value": 20.191202,
        "relative_strength": -25.379326,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -76.790683,
        "energy": 70.885179,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.010522,
          17.289573,
          18.630144,
          19.068382
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 16.799999,
        "volume": 700,
        "typical_volume": 975.0,
        "trend": 19.378427,
        "fair_value": 20.173016,
        "relative_strength": -23.684517,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -73.90471,
        "energy": 68.594284,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.945951,
          17.069253,
          18.387993,
          18.8957
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 16.799999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 975.0,
        "trend": 19.280274,
        "fair_value": 20.146499,
        "relative_strength": -20.818254,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -71.19036,
        "energy": 67.837442,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.880666,
          16.936209,
          18.159865,
          18.72935
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 16.799999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 975.0,
        "trend": 19.182121,
        "fair_value": 20.124957,
        "relative_strength": -21.243804,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.945281,
        "energy": 66.008571,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.814666,
          16.890443,
          17.945758,
          18.569332
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
        "close": 16.799999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 975.0,
        "trend": 19.083968,
        "fair_value": 20.100777,
        "relative_strength": -19.498514,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -67.927606,
        "energy": 64.562946,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.800666,
          16.873044,
          17.745673,
          18.415646
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 16.799999,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 970.0,
        "trend": 18.985815,
        "fair_value": 20.076597,
        "relative_strength": -21.110786,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -65.637605,
        "energy": 62.013757,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.799999,
          16.857414,
          17.55961,
          18.268294
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 17.4,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 940.0,
        "trend": 18.907663,
        "fair_value": 20.059201,
        "relative_strength": -18.071254,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -55.334316,
        "energy": 61.981101,
        "activity_lines": [
          16.999999,
          16.948895,
          17.444759,
          18.165983
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 17.4,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 940.0,
        "trend": 18.82951,
        "fair_value": 20.041804,
        "relative_strength": -18.952161,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -53.756681,
        "energy": 77.071435,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.16,
          17.029272,
          17.349908,
          18.068714
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 18.25,
        "volume": 3600,
        "typical_volume": 1120.0,
        "trend": 18.779691,
        "fair_value": 20.021525,
        "relative_strength": -12.165082,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -18.082767,
        "energy": 39.835632,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.563333,
          17.25309,
          17.356011,
          18.031327
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 18.5,
        "volume": 1000,
        "typical_volume": 1170.0,
        "trend": 18.738204,
        "fair_value": 20.002848,
        "relative_strength": -10.329877,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": 22.882261,
        "energy": 50.92525,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.953333,
          17.510181,
          17.401878,
          18.013282
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 17.459999,
        "volume": 100,
        "typical_volume": 1175.0,
        "trend": 18.662052,
        "fair_value": 19.982899,
        "relative_strength": -16.370174,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -2.518894,
        "energy": 34.55628,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.883333,
          17.550909,
          17.363459,
          17.930817
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 17.1,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 1175.0,
        "trend": 18.573899,
        "fair_value": 19.968255,
        "relative_strength": -14.653005,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Emerging rotation",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -23.774831,
        "energy": 37.501629,
        "activity_lines": [
          17.649333,
          17.514363,
          17.310471,
          17.83004
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}