{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9db43a03-5e10-412a-a7a6-6309001256b7", "symbol": "UPBD", "name": "Upbound Group Inc.", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.068, "architecture_energy": 30.464, "architecture_maturity": 22.154, "architecture_confidence": 52.162, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.83, "rotation_up": 46.62, "upward_expansion": 73.86, "deceleration": 66.06, "rotation_down": 19.89, "downward_expansion": 2.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.238, 20.177349, 19.486117, 19.185443 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.83, "trend_reference": 18.990938, "distance_from_trend": 0.044182, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.587098, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.159286, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.280259, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.007375, "excess_performance": -0.180078, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.044182, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052611, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.159286, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080575, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102803, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.137215, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.007375, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.139593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5773135, "relative_activity": 1.269402, "balance": 1.139593, "dry_up": 1.276087, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101126, "annualized_volatility": 0.441229, "from_high_reference": -0.233039, "from_low_reference": 0.336605 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.990938, "fair_value_reference": 23.587098, "structural_low": 16.071781, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.047584, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.046503, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.105043, "worst_return": -0.167201, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.049881, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.11811, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.163705, "worst_return": -0.322597, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.112969, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.154638, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.18126, "worst_return": -0.543651, 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"direction": 77.158061, "energy": 75.098026, "activity_lines": [ 20.954, 19.940947, 19.14939, 18.985955 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.46, "volume": 4575799, "typical_volume": 4387114.7, "trend": 18.871657, "fair_value": 23.681663, "relative_strength": -3.026967, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.044919, "energy": 65.145754, "activity_lines": [ 20.976, 20.178923, 19.323679, 19.096114 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.39, "volume": 8361197, "typical_volume": 4545859.3, "trend": 18.963736, "fair_value": 23.626751, "relative_strength": -8.231137, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.49849, "energy": 48.850838, "activity_lines": [ 20.498667, 20.155507, 19.388355, 19.129555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.83, "volume": 5773135, "typical_volume": 4547915.75, "trend": 18.990938, "fair_value": 23.587098, "relative_strength": -10.280259, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.067539, "energy": 30.464201, "activity_lines": [ 20.238, 20.177349, 19.486117, 19.185443 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }