{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9db530bf-4bc6-4451-93ec-18abf7369af9", "symbol": "AGR", "name": "AGRANA Beteiligungs-Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 68.871, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -53.797, "architecture_energy": 39.514, "architecture_maturity": 9.835, "architecture_confidence": 90.106, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.45, "rotation_up": 18.65, "upward_expansion": 9.16, "deceleration": 40.09, "rotation_down": 51.28, "downward_expansion": 77.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.366667, 11.403051, 11.520341, 11.556291 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 11.3, "trend_reference": 11.565346, "distance_from_trend": -0.022943, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.683263, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.032804, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.724524, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.017391, "excess_performance": -0.191638, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.022943, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004989, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.032804, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021137, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06083, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.017391, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.720024, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30759, "relative_activity": 0.895221, "balance": 1.720024, "dry_up": 1.098384, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033373, "annualized_volatility": 0.1313, "from_high_reference": -0.110236, "from_low_reference": 0.041475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.565346, "fair_value_reference": 11.683263, "structural_low": 11.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.001819, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.042744, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.066667, "worst_return": -0.111465, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.005526, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.078918, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.19457, "worst_return": -0.148148, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.012448, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.035868, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.202875, "worst_return": -0.186286, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.078344, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.055556, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.082988, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053812, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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-7.904641, "energy": 10.240854, "activity_lines": [ 11.500495, 11.515624, 11.621253, 11.606273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.5, "volume": 54987, "typical_volume": 34633.9, "trend": 11.557013, "fair_value": 11.739131, "relative_strength": -18.40224, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 3.824939, "energy": 4.578482, "activity_lines": [ 11.529704, 11.499981, 11.608109, 11.603563 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.25, "volume": 18807, "typical_volume": 34413.7, "trend": 11.560346, "fair_value": 11.718565, "relative_strength": -20.747788, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.603667, "energy": 10.795611, "activity_lines": [ 11.452839, 11.444338, 11.572345, 11.583755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.4, "volume": 46405, "typical_volume": 34973.45, "trend": 11.565346, "fair_value": 11.701235, "relative_strength": -19.140177, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.16837, "energy": 14.124769, "activity_lines": [ 11.42637, 11.427785, 11.551343, 11.57341 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.3, "volume": 30759, "typical_volume": 34359.1, "trend": 11.565346, "fair_value": 11.683263, "relative_strength": -21.724524, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.797217, "energy": 39.513725, "activity_lines": [ 11.366667, 11.403051, 11.520341, 11.556291 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }