{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9db8a2b5-6f2c-4135-b7b5-b5d32460a81b", "symbol": "MITT", "name": "AG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.641, "architecture_energy": 54.561, "architecture_maturity": 27.41, "architecture_confidence": 86.795, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.89, "rotation_up": 14.64, "upward_expansion": 9.93, "deceleration": 42.68, "rotation_down": 62.92, "downward_expansion": 83.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.967439, 7.071935, 7.26486, 7.378076 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.09, "trend_reference": 7.604192, "distance_from_trend": -0.06762, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.168132, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.149457, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.766257, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.136465, "excess_performance": -0.26209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06762, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030223, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.149457, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.157777, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157663, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096064, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136465, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.085526, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1121606, "relative_activity": 1.214528, "balance": 1.085526, "dry_up": 0.924494, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05578, "annualized_volatility": 0.256186, "from_high_reference": -0.210056, "from_low_reference": 0.08979 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.604192, "fair_value_reference": 6.168132, "structural_low": 6.505843, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.004123, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": 0.015499, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.294118, "worst_return": -0.311079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.026478, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.049143, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.226183, "worst_return": -0.235238, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042151, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.000375, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.354275, "worst_return": -0.213176, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001376, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007394, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054201, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.068804, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105114, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.126046, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.662405, "volume": 778282, "typical_volume": 1051820.7, "trend": 7.695475, "fair_value": 6.138602, "relative_strength": -17.553986, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.549051, "energy": 78.026241, "activity_lines": [ 6.946966, 7.153785, 7.336389, 7.461109 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.97, "volume": 886300, "typical_volume": 965355.65, "trend": 7.651545, "fair_value": 6.153099, "relative_strength": -14.52429, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.696981, "energy": 68.124082, "activity_lines": [ 6.928348, 7.097991, 7.294354, 7.414305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.09, "volume": 1121606, "typical_volume": 923490.95, "trend": 7.604192, "fair_value": 6.168132, "relative_strength": -15.766257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.641059, "energy": 54.560584, "activity_lines": [ 6.967439, 7.071935, 7.26486, 7.378076 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }