{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dbc0386-629b-4bd9-b0ed-85248e257973", "symbol": "TCMD", "name": "Tactile Systems Technology Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.493, "architecture_energy": 26.396, "architecture_maturity": 38.009, "architecture_confidence": 83.709, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.29, "rotation_up": 39.3, "upward_expansion": 64.27, "deceleration": 81.99, "rotation_down": 22.86, "downward_expansion": 14.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.662, 28.805091, 27.4485, 27.076613 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 29.5, "trend_reference": 27.0715, "distance_from_trend": 0.089707, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.31484, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.703741, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.844154, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.056969, "excess_performance": -0.130485, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.089707, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014693, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.703741, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188188, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078442, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018309, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.056969, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.51521, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 844156, "relative_activity": 0.644713, "balance": 1.51521, "dry_up": 0.771952, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084871, "annualized_volatility": 0.458646, "from_high_reference": -0.218957, "from_low_reference": 1.456286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.0715, "fair_value_reference": 17.31484, "structural_low": 20.53, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.036595, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00192, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.257042, "worst_return": -0.101435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.21308, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.137797, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.93163, "worst_return": -0.188131, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.085795, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.05215, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.200601, "worst_return": -0.176136, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184483, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.00228, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.003014, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.141998, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.860056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127089, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087811, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032101, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.150893, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059011, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.785, "volume": 1396964, "typical_volume": 1436619.5, "trend": 19.008833, "fair_value": 27.45859, "relative_strength": 6.578871, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": 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"trend": 27.0705, "fair_value": 17.199263, "relative_strength": 8.517496, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.714641, "energy": 35.867214, "activity_lines": [ 28.988667, 28.398, 26.961976, 26.850591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.17, "volume": 1101407, "typical_volume": 1338780.7, "trend": 27.096167, "fair_value": 17.245929, "relative_strength": 9.301989, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 23.878386, "energy": 18.662157, "activity_lines": [ 28.533333, 28.510364, 27.144857, 26.921527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.5, "volume": 844156, "typical_volume": 1309351.25, "trend": 27.0715, "fair_value": 17.31484, "relative_strength": 7.844154, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.49312, "energy": 26.395517, "activity_lines": [ 28.662, 28.805091, 27.4485, 27.076613 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }