{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dc15e27-e421-40df-b046-7c61d0c52a17", "symbol": "VRAX", "name": "Virax Biolabs Group Limited Ordinary Shares", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.356, "architecture_energy": 29.883, "architecture_maturity": 40.0, "architecture_confidence": 88.724, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.05, "rotation_up": 16.68, "upward_expansion": 3.17, "deceleration": 47.09, "rotation_down": 51.31, "downward_expansion": 76.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.107333, 3.3725, 3.820952, 4.048866 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.98, "trend_reference": 4.550167, "distance_from_trend": -0.345079, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 30.939305, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.903682, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -69.692914, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.473963, "excess_performance": -0.661417, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.345079, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.342287, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.903682, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013504, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.696929, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038512, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.473963, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.046812, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 858574, "relative_activity": 0.008465, "balance": 15.046812, "dry_up": 0.039772, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.894169, "annualized_volatility": 1.650259, "from_high_reference": -0.862989, "from_low_reference": 0.192 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.550167, "fair_value_reference": 30.939305, "structural_low": 2.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.136196, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.130929, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.357542, "worst_return": -0.410824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.094684, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.058132, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.351955, "worst_return": -0.541322, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.379888, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.303735, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.379888, "worst_return": -0.379888, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.234637, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.845, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.439059, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 91.875, "volume": 678762, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 94.1645, "volume": 302313, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": 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"activity_lines": [ 3.705167, 4.231091, 4.240714, 4.645699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.08, "volume": 73085977, "typical_volume": 100791796.95, "trend": 5.3765, "fair_value": 33.426612, "relative_strength": -65.531793, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.17876, "energy": 27.649062, "activity_lines": [ 3.7, 4.181091, 4.211631, 4.546425 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.79, "volume": 14253208, "typical_volume": 101452880.0, "trend": 5.178, "fair_value": 32.805074, "relative_strength": -65.047305, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.45538, "energy": 28.599431, "activity_lines": [ 3.680333, 4.064091, 4.160857, 4.44407 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.19, "volume": 759862, "typical_volume": 101441900.75, "trend": 4.985167, "fair_value": 32.20533, "relative_strength": -68.586871, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.452224, "energy": 26.268339, "activity_lines": [ 3.514667, 3.846818, 4.062, 4.315812 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.62, "volume": 263985, "typical_volume": 101407424.65, "trend": 4.7525, "fair_value": 31.561228, "relative_strength": -73.140833, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.925369, "energy": 27.530758, "activity_lines": [ 3.234667, 3.537682, 3.919202, 4.16322 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.98, "volume": 858574, "typical_volume": 101424921.6, "trend": 4.550167, "fair_value": 30.939305, "relative_strength": -69.692914, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.355635, "energy": 29.883301, "activity_lines": [ 3.107333, 3.3725, 3.820952, 4.048866 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }