{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dc2b610-dbe5-4b6a-b824-da9fd8d71cd4", "symbol": "INDB", "name": "Indel B S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 65.072, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.621, "architecture_energy": 34.293, "architecture_maturity": 16.237, "architecture_confidence": 65.137, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.03, "rotation_up": 43.38, "upward_expansion": 74.86, "deceleration": 59.49, "rotation_down": 24.43, "downward_expansion": 3.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.583333, 19.537273, 19.413051, 19.240146 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.799999, "trend_reference": 19.100147, "distance_from_trend": 0.036641, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.852898, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.002665, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.812733, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045999, "excess_performance": -0.124893, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036641, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016586, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.002665, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040499, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.108127, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001663, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045999, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.879384, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2198, "relative_activity": 0.612001, "balance": 1.879384, "dry_up": 0.577405, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024506, "annualized_volatility": 0.109474, "from_high_reference": -0.028715, "from_low_reference": 0.114589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.100147, "fair_value_reference": 19.852898, "structural_low": 17.861464, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.004202, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018885, "regime_survival": 0.533333, "best_return": 0.041667, "worst_return": -0.059701, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.017502, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.079421, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.023077, "worst_return": -0.032663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023869, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.083677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.012219, "worst_return": -0.070539, 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"activity_lines": [ 19.533333, 19.517162, 19.271959, 19.143791 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.4, "volume": 1544, "typical_volume": 3873.0, "trend": 19.052147, "fair_value": 19.871851, "relative_strength": -10.023476, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.981391, "energy": 30.306243, "activity_lines": [ 19.503333, 19.49663, 19.308643, 19.167663 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.450001, "volume": 1128, "typical_volume": 3664.2, "trend": 19.074358, "fair_value": 19.860964, "relative_strength": -10.088736, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.791373, "energy": 28.657726, "activity_lines": [ 19.49, 19.485455, 19.346923, 19.193331 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 2198, "typical_volume": 3591.5, "trend": 19.100147, "fair_value": 19.852898, "relative_strength": -10.812733, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.62117, "energy": 34.292551, "activity_lines": [ 19.583333, 19.537273, 19.413051, 19.240146 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }