{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dc2cde4-572a-4b4c-8965-527fdb40e544", "symbol": "600292", "name": "SPIC Hydropower Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.12, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.598, "architecture_energy": 47.888, "architecture_maturity": 12.75, "architecture_confidence": 91.129, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.74, "rotation_up": 17.69, "upward_expansion": 7.67, "deceleration": 46.78, "rotation_down": 58.29, "downward_expansion": 81.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.398, 12.614727, 13.375273, 13.726505 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 12.48, "trend_reference": 14.012611, "distance_from_trend": -0.109374, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.030211, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244241, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.004858, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.061976, "excess_performance": -0.018772, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.109374, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.008061, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244241, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.461922, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070049, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.178961, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.061976, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.541255, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 51167058, "relative_activity": 0.741801, "balance": 0.541255, "dry_up": 1.084908, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09321, "annualized_volatility": 0.401311, "from_high_reference": -0.32442, "from_low_reference": 0.080519 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.012611, "fair_value_reference": 10.030211, "structural_low": 11.55, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.01919, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": 0.014574, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.143382, "worst_return": -0.152648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.045089, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.00369, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 1.821862, "worst_return": -0.233062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034965, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.009611, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.540486, "worst_return": -0.213889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.959799, "energy": 62.936529, "activity_lines": [ 12.806667, 13.420931, 14.040072, 14.150937 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.49, "volume": 104377166, "typical_volume": 72837885.9, "trend": 14.046982, "fair_value": 9.905308, "relative_strength": -2.886888, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.513744, "energy": 62.22668, "activity_lines": [ 12.555333, 13.153989, 13.86223, 14.049613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.0, "volume": 90796393, "typical_volume": 71602933.5, "trend": 14.03138, "fair_value": 9.945036, "relative_strength": -7.787316, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.567298, "energy": 74.687481, "activity_lines": [ 12.275333, 12.86256, 13.650373, 13.91755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.62, "volume": 52993071, "typical_volume": 69354362.1, "trend": 14.029806, "fair_value": 9.988358, "relative_strength": -3.426343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.382234, "energy": 63.352636, "activity_lines": [ 12.351333, 12.736909, 13.514777, 13.826493 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.48, "volume": 51167058, "typical_volume": 68976771.3, "trend": 14.012611, "fair_value": 10.030211, "relative_strength": -7.004858, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.597681, "energy": 47.887616, "activity_lines": [ 12.398, 12.614727, 13.375273, 13.726505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }