{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dc49a69-1bda-4440-b431-40f0ef781d42", "symbol": "601702", "name": "Shanghai Huafon Aluminium Corporation", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.128, "architecture_energy": 44.173, "architecture_maturity": 72.378, "architecture_confidence": 57.568, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.23, "rotation_up": 24.95, "upward_expansion": 18.29, "deceleration": 66.7, "rotation_down": 45.99, "downward_expansion": 68.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.037333, 15.017818, 16.385026, 17.520656 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.43, "trend_reference": 19.050732, "distance_from_trend": -0.190057, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.448265, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.115671, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.440046, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.414199, "excess_performance": -0.370995, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.190057, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054197, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.115671, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.205718, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.1644, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092395, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.414199, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.738512, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41908407, "relative_activity": 0.898607, "balance": 1.738512, "dry_up": 1.258144, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.113524, "annualized_volatility": 0.482744, "from_high_reference": -0.449518, "from_low_reference": 0.133725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.050732, "fair_value_reference": 17.448265, "structural_low": 13.61, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.003736, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.004547, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.544369, "worst_return": -0.203046, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129356, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.057062, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.44868, "worst_return": -0.158824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.282646, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.096536, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.67871, "worst_return": -0.050013, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.742509, "energy": 82.216518, "activity_lines": [ 14.26, 15.282077, 16.798187, 18.005137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.68, "volume": 67634152, "typical_volume": 46182307.1, "trend": 19.218732, "fair_value": 17.43912, "relative_strength": -12.87875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.093425, "energy": 55.687818, "activity_lines": [ 14.742, 15.135436, 16.589416, 17.76509 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.43, "volume": 41908407, "typical_volume": 46637092.05, "trend": 19.050732, "fair_value": 17.448265, "relative_strength": -16.440046, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.128331, "energy": 44.172585, "activity_lines": [ 15.037333, 15.017818, 16.385026, 17.520656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }