{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dc50d6d-f65f-4f9e-92ae-f0f534266da5", "symbol": "000968", "name": "Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.511, "architecture_energy": 32.478, "architecture_maturity": 68.678, "architecture_confidence": 85.339, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.48, "rotation_up": 27.74, "upward_expansion": 18.59, "deceleration": 46.59, "rotation_down": 31.06, "downward_expansion": 66.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.844, 6.680454, 7.141991, 7.651396 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.94, "trend_reference": 8.02287, "distance_from_trend": -0.134973, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.969823, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004279, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.782498, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.150551, "excess_performance": -0.157951, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.134973, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012029, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004279, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.208534, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.117825, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021685, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.150551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.060462, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 122563528, "relative_activity": 0.594292, "balance": 1.060462, "dry_up": 1.121562, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094368, "annualized_volatility": 0.460255, "from_high_reference": -0.430213, "from_low_reference": 0.160535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.02287, "fair_value_reference": 6.969823, "structural_low": 5.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.022346, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.000206, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.200257, "worst_return": -0.171831, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024204, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.022122, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.542857, "worst_return": -0.126062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.020307, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.101112, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.231012, "worst_return": -0.134678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"volume": 140295210, "typical_volume": 237567280.3, "trend": 7.990536, "fair_value": 6.987625, "relative_strength": -26.059092, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.340324, "energy": 86.931301, "activity_lines": [ 6.304356, 6.728371, 7.655154, 7.948545 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.6, "volume": 257401709, "typical_volume": 241799631.15, "trend": 7.99187, "fair_value": 6.98339, "relative_strength": -13.728586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.904932, "energy": 84.935825, "activity_lines": [ 6.357764, 6.630537, 7.486316, 7.858833 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.89, "volume": 329237351, "typical_volume": 230428202.7, "trend": 8.001536, "fair_value": 6.979845, "relative_strength": -9.92304, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.890035, "energy": 65.166463, "activity_lines": [ 6.540667, 6.619093, 7.35462, 7.787744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.96, "volume": 216017159, "typical_volume": 219436725.15, "trend": 8.01187, "fair_value": 6.974092, "relative_strength": -7.263187, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.714368, "energy": 41.53137, "activity_lines": [ 6.727333, 6.643715, 7.243305, 7.720548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.94, "volume": 122563528, "typical_volume": 206234684.35, "trend": 8.02287, "fair_value": 6.969823, "relative_strength": -11.782498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.510983, "energy": 32.478042, "activity_lines": [ 6.844, 6.680454, 7.141991, 7.651396 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }