{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dc84048-4e75-44ad-9d63-8981682cb3df", "symbol": "ISRC", "name": "Amundi Label ISR Credit EUR UCITS ETF Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 91.582, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.74, "architecture_energy": 26.188, "architecture_maturity": 52.522, "architecture_confidence": 74.277, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.96, "rotation_up": 25.23, "upward_expansion": 57.19, "deceleration": 87.8, "rotation_down": 40.41, "downward_expansion": 23.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.3328, 10.349309, 10.336038, 10.323153 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.356, "trend_reference": 10.3186, "distance_from_trend": 0.003625, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.218186, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.013487, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.152611, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.001543, "excess_performance": -0.054854, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003625, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002091, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.013487, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001949, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.061526, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.050888, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.001543, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.617485, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123, "relative_activity": 0.018957, "balance": 0.617485, "dry_up": 0.681133, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003907, "annualized_volatility": 0.044484, "from_high_reference": -0.006523, "from_low_reference": 0.024535 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.3186, "fair_value_reference": 10.218186, "structural_low": 10.108, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011162, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003488, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-12-20", "close": 10.0232, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-12-27", "close": 9.9921, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 10.372, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 10.392, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10507.3, "trend": 10.303867, "fair_value": 10.20835, "relative_strength": -2.973663, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.968509, "energy": 75.381277, "activity_lines": [ 10.3696, 10.340509, 10.30961, 10.308559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 10.408, "volume": 203, "typical_volume": 7845.1, "trend": 10.307733, "fair_value": 10.210815, "relative_strength": -4.089002, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.511099, "energy": 81.998983, "activity_lines": [ 10.385333, 10.356327, 10.319495, 10.315277 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 10.368, "volume": 521, "typical_volume": 7662.8, "trend": 10.311267, "fair_value": 10.212732, "relative_strength": -2.426269, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.976463, "energy": 71.39515, "activity_lines": [ 10.383467, 10.363127, 10.325543, 10.319166 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.368, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7575.8, "trend": 10.3148, "fair_value": 10.214602, "relative_strength": -2.332115, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.769855, "energy": 69.497468, "activity_lines": [ 10.379467, 10.367782, 10.331629, 10.322826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.276, "volume": 16604, "typical_volume": 7349.75, "trend": 10.315, "fair_value": 10.215333, "relative_strength": -3.471487, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.833543, "energy": 17.3684, "activity_lines": [ 10.344267, 10.354727, 10.329219, 10.320323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.32, "volume": 951, "typical_volume": 6872.3, "trend": 10.317133, "fair_value": 10.216565, "relative_strength": -4.416367, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.404789, "energy": 23.733482, "activity_lines": [ 10.330133, 10.349018, 10.330962, 10.320645 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.356, "volume": 123, "typical_volume": 6488.45, "trend": 10.3186, "fair_value": 10.218186, "relative_strength": -6.152611, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.740186, "energy": 26.187638, "activity_lines": [ 10.3328, 10.349309, 10.336038, 10.323153 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }