{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dca4b4a-4d3e-4ed1-81d1-857cff33b30b", "symbol": "ARCC", "name": "Ares Capital Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.387, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.645, "architecture_energy": 73.157, "architecture_maturity": 10.884, "architecture_confidence": 65.163, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.17, "rotation_up": 72.68, "upward_expansion": 88.41, "deceleration": 45.03, "rotation_down": 10.67, "downward_expansion": 15.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.236667, 18.953086, 18.697368, 18.504431 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.01, "trend_reference": 18.424559, "distance_from_trend": 0.08605, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.949543, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.114792, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.012569, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.091532, "excess_performance": -0.095922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08605, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006107, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.114792, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060751, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127138, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.091532, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.156113, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25209246, "relative_activity": 0.941481, "balance": 1.156113, "dry_up": 0.866642, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.034306, "annualized_volatility": 0.183607, "from_high_reference": -0.030685, "from_low_reference": 0.179646 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.424559, "fair_value_reference": 17.949543, "structural_low": 16.962723, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.004458, "positive_rate": 0.589744, "directional_follow_through": 0.589744, "median_excess_return": -0.006485, "regime_survival": 0.794872, "best_return": 0.084191, "worst_return": -0.06489, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.032236, "positive_rate": 0.866667, "directional_follow_through": 0.866667, "median_excess_return": -0.017283, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.088365, "worst_return": -0.14048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.067691, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.008792, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.106644, "worst_return": -0.06003, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"energy": 42.443283, "activity_lines": [ 18.771333, 18.607818, 18.4345, 18.358519 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.78, "volume": 18684085, "typical_volume": 28677834.25, "trend": 18.432209, "fair_value": 17.889944, "relative_strength": -8.816686, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.427814, "energy": 43.882133, "activity_lines": [ 18.838, 18.657739, 18.488991, 18.380104 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.76, "volume": 24617659, "typical_volume": 27263940.35, "trend": 18.410715, "fair_value": 17.915713, "relative_strength": -8.856551, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 25.319256, "energy": 43.105948, "activity_lines": [ 18.848, 18.697569, 18.536867, 18.401252 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.01, "volume": 25209246, "typical_volume": 26776153.25, "trend": 18.424559, "fair_value": 17.949543, "relative_strength": -7.012569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.645077, "energy": 73.156828, "activity_lines": [ 19.236667, 18.953086, 18.697368, 18.504431 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }