{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dcfc4be-4411-4c60-9ce2-774a1a70487d", "symbol": "FCTE", "name": "SMI 3FOURTEEN FULL-CYCLE TREND ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.146, "architecture_energy": 70.836, "architecture_maturity": 43.037, "architecture_confidence": 72.772, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.11, "rotation_up": 70.83, "upward_expansion": 85.05, "deceleration": 60.18, "rotation_down": 17.4, "downward_expansion": 11.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.41568, 29.061284, 28.276857, 27.711058 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 30.324, "trend_reference": 27.154653, "distance_from_trend": 0.116715, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.33326, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.151547, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.185895, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.122695, "excess_performance": -0.064758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.116715, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.151547, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12704, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.001859, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149031, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.122695, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.311812, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143755, "relative_activity": 1.342269, "balance": 2.311812, "dry_up": 1.193399, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026165, "annualized_volatility": 0.165792, "from_high_reference": -0.001469, "from_low_reference": 0.269167 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.154653, "fair_value_reference": 26.33326, "structural_low": 23.892843, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.002852, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.006379, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.064447, "worst_return": -0.100016, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.001147, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.214773, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.001147, "worst_return": 0.001147, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"relative_strength": 0.433164, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.633332, "energy": 82.755902, "activity_lines": [ 28.88178, 28.520516, 27.799174, 27.353463 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 29.1009, "volume": 90355, "typical_volume": 105176.8, "trend": 27.00694, "fair_value": 26.296648, "relative_strength": 0.878212, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.14274, "energy": 78.317241, "activity_lines": [ 28.960967, 28.699836, 27.988572, 27.497054 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.324, "volume": 143755, "typical_volume": 107098.5, "trend": 27.154653, "fair_value": 26.33326, "relative_strength": 0.185895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.146204, "energy": 70.836138, "activity_lines": [ 29.41568, 29.061284, 28.276857, 27.711058 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }