{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dd16ea5-8585-41c9-b663-750198bf976e", "symbol": "VNL", "name": "Vinyl Group Ltd", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.302, "architecture_energy": 65.634, "architecture_maturity": 63.96, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.36, "rotation_up": 26.84, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 57.03, "rotation_down": 57.44, "downward_expansion": 85.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0518, 0.053082, 0.05974, 0.065513 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.05, "trend_reference": 0.0722, "distance_from_trend": -0.307479, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.089562, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.441729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -40.253495, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.411765, "excess_performance": -0.47547, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.307479, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124848, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.441729, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.326203, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.402535, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.238769, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.411765, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.421194, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1018411, "relative_activity": 0.985334, "balance": 0.421194, "dry_up": 0.941464, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117692, "annualized_volatility": 0.427833, "from_high_reference": -0.655172, "from_low_reference": 0.162791 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0722, "fair_value_reference": 0.089562, "structural_low": 0.043, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.005618, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015867, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.8, "worst_return": -0.275, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.102041, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.060284, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.36, "worst_return": -0.297872, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.087719, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.115506, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.033333, "worst_return": -0.423077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157895, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.165217, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.053, "volume": 1319453, "typical_volume": 1090707.6, "trend": 0.074267, "fair_value": 0.089652, "relative_strength": -34.749775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.547234, "energy": 84.33974, "activity_lines": [ 0.0527, 0.055118, 0.063107, 0.068384 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.053, "volume": 1141940, "typical_volume": 1094376.1, "trend": 0.073233, "fair_value": 0.089607, "relative_strength": -35.402033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.220275, "energy": 70.102635, "activity_lines": [ 0.052633, 0.054227, 0.061502, 0.067012 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.05, "volume": 1018411, "typical_volume": 1033569.5, "trend": 0.0722, "fair_value": 0.089562, "relative_strength": -40.253495, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.301989, "energy": 65.633522, "activity_lines": [ 0.0518, 0.053082, 0.05974, 0.065513 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }