{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dd26655-73f1-4cb6-ac2e-4b9bf6591b7a", "symbol": "VEN", "name": "Vintage Energy Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.098, "architecture_energy": 60.925, "architecture_maturity": 60.963, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.69, "rotation_up": 26.38, "upward_expansion": 13.55, "deceleration": 41.54, "rotation_down": 48.52, "downward_expansion": 84.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002064, 0.002424, 0.002832 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.002, "trend_reference": 0.003333, "distance_from_trend": -0.4, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.010503, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.809569, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.719077, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.5, "excess_performance": -0.563706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.4, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173554, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.809569, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046286, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.507191, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.2876, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.5, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.271112, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4607012, "relative_activity": 0.514095, "balance": 0.271112, "dry_up": 1.448135, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.269231, "annualized_volatility": 1.231648, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.333333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.003333, "fair_value_reference": 0.010503, "structural_low": 0.0015, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.087121, "positive_rate": 0.264706, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.071818, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.428571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.225, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.246186, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.25, "worst_return": -0.52, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.379995, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.397988, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.171058, "worst_return": -0.684211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"relative_strength": -50.758363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.498813, "energy": 69.128412, "activity_lines": [ 0.002067, 0.002255, 0.002733, 0.00312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.002, "volume": 15506184, "typical_volume": 9019612.65, "trend": 0.0035, "fair_value": 0.011041, "relative_strength": -49.647671, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.002352, "energy": 72.855481, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002173, 0.002619, 0.003019 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.002, "volume": 3639252, "typical_volume": 8893917.75, "trend": 0.0034, "fair_value": 0.010772, "relative_strength": -49.918052, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.213019, "energy": 67.514494, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002109, 0.002514, 0.002923 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.002, "volume": 4607012, "typical_volume": 8961395.4, "trend": 0.003333, "fair_value": 0.010503, "relative_strength": -50.719077, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.097798, "energy": 60.925313, "activity_lines": [ 0.002, 0.002064, 0.002424, 0.002832 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }