{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dd2b938-4a28-478f-b137-d2540e101167", "symbol": "ZIOC", "name": "Zanaga Iron Ore Company Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.684, "architecture_energy": 53.462, "architecture_maturity": 81.394, "architecture_confidence": 94.119, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.2, "rotation_up": 24.77, "upward_expansion": 7.39, "deceleration": 55.57, "rotation_down": 53.2, "downward_expansion": 78.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.039407, 0.040703, 0.042583, 0.046465 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.036, "trend_reference": 0.053323, "distance_from_trend": -0.324873, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.066994, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.46264, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.877757, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.599109, "excess_performance": -0.650344, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.324873, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.177913, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.46264, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.184443, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.478778, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.13522, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.599109, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551892, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13465321, "relative_activity": 1.557349, "balance": 0.551892, "dry_up": 1.017829, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.144808, "annualized_volatility": 0.671181, "from_high_reference": -0.671233, "from_low_reference": 0.075269 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.053323, "fair_value_reference": 0.066994, "structural_low": 0.03348, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.05, "positive_rate": 0.322581, "directional_follow_through": 0.677419, "median_excess_return": -0.056651, "regime_survival": 0.870968, "best_return": 1.195122, "worst_return": -0.231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.047665, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.047762, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.959091, "worst_return": -0.291237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.25551, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.199687, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.941441, "worst_return": -0.403226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-04-12", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.28, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.373541, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.052, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071084, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.062428, "active": 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"direction": -49.674272, "energy": 44.528365, "activity_lines": [ 0.04253, 0.042186, 0.045684, 0.050705 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.0429, "volume": 3249863, "typical_volume": 7733890.9, "trend": 0.057033, "fair_value": 0.067578, "relative_strength": -38.9747, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.458007, "energy": 39.537573, "activity_lines": [ 0.042753, 0.042235, 0.045055, 0.049719 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.041, "volume": 3569453, "typical_volume": 7648865.05, "trend": 0.055857, "fair_value": 0.067356, "relative_strength": -41.670146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.719807, "energy": 38.457982, "activity_lines": [ 0.042283, 0.042086, 0.044332, 0.048684 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.04, "volume": 14917237, "typical_volume": 8087065.6, "trend": 0.054543, "fair_value": 0.067162, "relative_strength": -42.823734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.469298, "energy": 44.80748, "activity_lines": [ 0.041487, 0.041748, 0.043595, 0.047661 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.036, "volume": 13465321, "typical_volume": 8646310.15, "trend": 0.053323, "fair_value": 0.066994, "relative_strength": -47.877757, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.684152, "energy": 53.462444, "activity_lines": [ 0.039407, 0.040703, 0.042583, 0.046465 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }