{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9dd47daf-03e0-4848-a8bd-f17ee9a1ea56", "symbol": "000750", "name": "Sealand Securities Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -13.227, "architecture_energy": 13.971, "architecture_maturity": 28.197, "architecture_confidence": 63.91, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.45, "rotation_up": 32.63, "upward_expansion": 29.48, "deceleration": 49.69, "rotation_down": 18.49, "downward_expansion": 40.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.795333, 3.7502, 3.742668, 3.797591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.79, "trend_reference": 3.903831, "distance_from_trend": -0.029159, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.841634, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.013441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.670655, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.110329, "excess_performance": -0.117728, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.029159, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049977, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.013441, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044574, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116707, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125039, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.110329, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.602321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 189161257, "relative_activity": 0.971287, "balance": 0.602321, "dry_up": 1.318497, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048121, "annualized_volatility": 0.150743, "from_high_reference": -0.226051, "from_low_reference": 0.110582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.903831, "fair_value_reference": 3.841634, "structural_low": 3.412626, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.015674, "positive_rate": 0.388889, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.001685, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.106383, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.004827, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.023759, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.509934, "worst_return": -0.092458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.014409, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.07203, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.357616, "worst_return": -0.114286, "sufficient": true }, { 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.131367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004751, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.064437, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004762, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016393, "active": 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"date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.81, "volume": 304445490, "typical_volume": 200457869.1, "trend": 3.949164, "fair_value": 3.832924, "relative_strength": -9.228503, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.453749, "energy": 20.858628, "activity_lines": [ 3.736836, 3.690832, 3.73931, 3.824139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.76, "volume": 294227026, "typical_volume": 199213846.15, "trend": 3.933498, "fair_value": 3.835842, "relative_strength": -10.2306, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.359151, "energy": 20.703287, "activity_lines": [ 3.756704, 3.704197, 3.735477, 3.811934 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.84, "volume": 239292368, "typical_volume": 199209242.5, "trend": 3.918831, "fair_value": 3.839024, "relative_strength": -6.373249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.18432, "energy": 16.683695, "activity_lines": [ 3.790661, 3.732653, 3.74093, 3.805902 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.79, "volume": 189161257, "typical_volume": 194753159.1, "trend": 3.903831, "fair_value": 3.841634, "relative_strength": -11.670655, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -13.226663, "energy": 13.971445, "activity_lines": [ 3.795333, 3.7502, 3.742668, 3.797591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }