{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9ddd1455-7c24-4e83-bcda-332054462d2e", "symbol": "TSCO", "name": "Tractor Supply Company", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.41, "architecture_energy": 37.264, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.702, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.55, "rotation_up": 27.9, "upward_expansion": 23.18, "deceleration": 46.82, "rotation_down": 37.19, "downward_expansion": 64.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.026, 31.517818, 32.046846, 35.062583 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.56, "trend_reference": 39.743613, "distance_from_trend": -0.130426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 48.252234, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.283764, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.649734, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.370844, "excess_performance": -0.558298, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.130426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.149686, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.283764, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.096845, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.356497, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.156037, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.370844, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.682788, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 57414559, "relative_activity": 1.046898, "balance": 1.682788, "dry_up": 1.01247, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068402, "annualized_volatility": 0.408806, "from_high_reference": -0.441261, "from_low_reference": 0.218618 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.743613, "fair_value_reference": 48.252234, "structural_low": 28.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.009168, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.565217, "median_excess_return": 0.012738, "regime_survival": 0.869565, "best_return": 0.200452, "worst_return": -0.320818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019111, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.035693, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.189434, "worst_return": -0.298992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.063995, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.148449, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.109771, "worst_return": -0.385173, "sufficient": false }, { 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50501449.65, "trend": 41.593687, "fair_value": 48.445811, "relative_strength": -43.402946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.501872, "energy": 56.740642, "activity_lines": [ 30.814, 30.836393, 33.018994, 36.770127 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.02, "volume": 66510798, "typical_volume": 52253396.2, "trend": 40.935611, "fair_value": 48.372982, "relative_strength": -40.674469, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.157643, "energy": 54.352428, "activity_lines": [ 30.877333, 30.868809, 32.505414, 36.087954 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.77, "volume": 51572691, "typical_volume": 53322274.7, "trend": 40.28764, "fair_value": 48.300588, "relative_strength": -40.613343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.234417, "energy": 55.763184, "activity_lines": [ 30.805333, 30.843273, 32.057313, 35.432108 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.56, "volume": 57414559, "typical_volume": 54842570.55, "trend": 39.743613, "fair_value": 48.252234, "relative_strength": -35.649734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.409595, "energy": 37.264353, "activity_lines": [ 32.026, 31.517818, 32.046846, 35.062583 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }