{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9de17a3d-3582-45e1-a58b-4eaa3f314859", "symbol": "TRE", "name": "T\u00e9cnicas Reunidas, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.509, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -68.52, "architecture_energy": 67.894, "architecture_maturity": 12.099, "architecture_confidence": 88.064, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.84, "rotation_up": 13.2, "upward_expansion": 17.24, "deceleration": 34.57, "rotation_down": 72.04, "downward_expansion": 90.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.497334, 29.536364, 30.713714, 31.146452 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.58, "trend_reference": 31.564667, "distance_from_trend": -0.126238, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17.888942, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.541735, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.611743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.113183, "excess_performance": -0.237614, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.126238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021114, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.541735, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.582167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.206117, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.34677, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.113183, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.509106, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 974497, "relative_activity": 1.012738, "balance": 0.509106, "dry_up": 1.089468, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.091761, "annualized_volatility": 0.46723, "from_high_reference": -0.286601, "from_low_reference": 0.325962 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.564667, "fair_value_reference": 17.888942, "structural_low": 26.02, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.019941, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.388889, "median_excess_return": 0.026848, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.334965, "worst_return": -0.156013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.146851, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.099716, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.45034, "worst_return": -0.144175, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.332034, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.20823, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.770764, "worst_return": -0.1961, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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17.514615, "relative_strength": -11.078751, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.300528, "energy": 43.030002, "activity_lines": [ 30.329334, 30.916, 31.623905, 31.767914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 29.139999, "volume": 824614, "typical_volume": 974794.5, "trend": 31.61, "fair_value": 17.644712, "relative_strength": -13.685748, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.987349, "energy": 46.819858, "activity_lines": [ 29.76, 30.573818, 31.385048, 31.611355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.440001, "volume": 1403974, "typical_volume": 983462.95, "trend": 31.616, "fair_value": 17.773045, "relative_strength": -16.551988, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.312321, "energy": 64.011108, "activity_lines": [ 29.218667, 30.111637, 31.090381, 31.406839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.58, "volume": 974497, "typical_volume": 962239.95, "trend": 31.564667, "fair_value": 17.888942, "relative_strength": -20.611743, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.519845, "energy": 67.894222, "activity_lines": [ 28.497334, 29.536364, 30.713714, 31.146452 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }