{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9de26ac3-ef1e-4317-b207-b26df479107e", "symbol": "BTAI", "name": "BioXcel Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.192, "architecture_energy": 72.705, "architecture_maturity": 86.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.329, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.63, "rotation_up": 12.5, "upward_expansion": 19.18, "deceleration": 34.41, "rotation_down": 71.56, "downward_expansion": 90.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.858353, 0.969287, 1.051009, 1.131167 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.9017, "trend_reference": 1.267237, "distance_from_trend": -0.288452, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 16.712589, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.946047, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -58.334164, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.398867, "excess_performance": -0.58632, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.288452, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.181019, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.946047, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019705, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.583342, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079338, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.398867, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.974449, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2354947, "relative_activity": 0.541115, "balance": 0.974449, "dry_up": 0.888858, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.222938, "annualized_volatility": 0.904854, "from_high_reference": -0.888403, "from_low_reference": 0.224304 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.267237, "fair_value_reference": 16.712589, "structural_low": 0.7365, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 48, "median_return": -0.062911, "positive_rate": 0.354167, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.073199, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.050761, "worst_return": -0.609206, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.155823, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.167665, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 2.77931, "worst_return": -0.845541, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.295064, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.34983, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.388649, "worst_return": -0.839172, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.388556, "energy": 66.699859, "activity_lines": [ 0.953973, 1.05212, 1.106431, 1.191064 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.808, "volume": 2273425, "typical_volume": 4444271.55, "trend": 1.30418, "fair_value": 17.465783, "relative_strength": -62.174387, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.527397, "energy": 77.865734, "activity_lines": [ 0.873813, 0.999258, 1.072634, 1.157134 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.9017, "volume": 2354947, "typical_volume": 4352025.55, "trend": 1.267237, "fair_value": 16.712589, "relative_strength": -58.334164, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.191617, "energy": 72.705096, "activity_lines": [ 0.858353, 0.969287, 1.051009, 1.131167 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }