{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9de87ef8-a16c-45c1-b90f-ea3ffe7a07d5", "symbol": "JVA", "name": "Coffee Holding Co Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 64.89, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.323, "architecture_energy": 33.879, "architecture_maturity": 11.791, "architecture_confidence": 74.624, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.99, "rotation_up": 28.39, "upward_expansion": 12.19, "deceleration": 58.48, "rotation_down": 47.21, "downward_expansion": 49.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.47, 3.496182, 3.783476, 3.829124 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.5, "trend_reference": 3.790851, "distance_from_trend": -0.076724, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.974388, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.176713, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.178921, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.158646, "excess_performance": -0.028807, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076724, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003547, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.176713, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.418198, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.211789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144532, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158646, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.536184, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 368801, "relative_activity": 1.232316, "balance": 0.536184, "dry_up": 0.805583, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090424, "annualized_volatility": 0.631662, "from_high_reference": -0.362138, "from_low_reference": 0.225871 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.790851, "fair_value_reference": 2.974388, "structural_low": 2.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.253812, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": 0.186556, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.572973, "worst_return": -0.201867, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.371578, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.254606, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.765, "worst_return": -0.040541, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.902007, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.812052, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.566176, "worst_return": 0.237838, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.920095, 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"Developing", "return": 0.081146, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.050633, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053922, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.090057, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.09589, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", 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3.834971, 3.848493 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.5, "volume": 368801, "typical_volume": 299274.65, "trend": 3.790851, "fair_value": 2.974388, "relative_strength": -21.178921, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.322995, "energy": 33.87897, "activity_lines": [ 3.47, 3.496182, 3.783476, 3.829124 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }