{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9df00429-9d08-4da6-8027-a04a3d732e79", "symbol": "EJP3", "name": "WisdomTree Long JPY Short EUR 3x Daily", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 51.837, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 2.915, "architecture_energy": 3.67, "architecture_maturity": 10.414, "architecture_confidence": 59.623, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 64.52, "rotation_up": 26.83, "upward_expansion": 26.98, "deceleration": 41.4, "rotation_down": 27.57, "downward_expansion": 51.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.277, 4.257827, 4.250438, 4.270059 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.39, "trend_reference": 4.304333, "distance_from_trend": 0.019902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.391116, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.313109, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.654771, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.024385, "excess_performance": -0.146507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.019902, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026705, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.313109, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059704, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.186548, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068475, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.024385, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790236, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29697, "relative_activity": 1.326144, "balance": 0.790236, "dry_up": 1.690993, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.025074, "annualized_volatility": 0.173079, "from_high_reference": -0.283265, "from_low_reference": 0.0975 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.304333, "fair_value_reference": 6.391116, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.023714, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.033318, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.165194, "worst_return": -0.10632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.073583, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.125, "median_excess_return": -0.143799, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.00354, "worst_return": -0.197918, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.183494, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.329598, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.025454, "worst_return": -0.296823, "sufficient": true }, { 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"label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-03-10", "end": "2023-12-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.300481, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-12-29", "end": "2024-01-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.096436, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-01-26", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.156755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013955, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009541, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.040719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.122924, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.342814, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 8.902, "volume": 2544, "typical_volume": 15574.9, "trend": 11.121667, "fair_value": 16.377763, "relative_strength": -32.980321, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.966892, "energy": 17.209458, "activity_lines": [ 4.256, 4.248809, 4.256774, 4.287314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.1615, "volume": 21135, "typical_volume": 19373.35, "trend": 4.31845, "fair_value": 6.486042, "relative_strength": -22.585403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.905763, "energy": 32.357324, "activity_lines": [ 4.227367, 4.2321, 4.245362, 4.276696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.1185, "volume": 42083, "typical_volume": 20133.3, "trend": 4.308583, "fair_value": 6.450975, "relative_strength": -22.491611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.429852, "energy": 51.143577, "activity_lines": [ 4.1872, 4.210064, 4.230724, 4.263796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.321, "volume": 58554, "typical_volume": 21964.4, "trend": 4.305333, "fair_value": 6.419526, "relative_strength": -18.357269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.129978, "energy": 24.649791, "activity_lines": [ 4.222267, 4.227991, 4.23696, 4.264597 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.39, "volume": 29697, "typical_volume": 22393.5, "trend": 4.304333, "fair_value": 6.391116, "relative_strength": -18.654771, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 2.914975, "energy": 3.670044, "activity_lines": [ 4.277, 4.257827, 4.250438, 4.270059 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }