{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9df56783-2f0e-49af-a28e-c188c2c2d799", "symbol": "XP", "name": "Xp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.763, "architecture_energy": 19.304, "architecture_maturity": 48.392, "architecture_confidence": 75.542, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.58, "rotation_up": 25.66, "upward_expansion": 18.33, "deceleration": 43.23, "rotation_down": 26.46, "downward_expansion": 54.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.651333, 16.473952, 16.764062, 17.300518 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.24, "trend_reference": 17.982945, "distance_from_trend": -0.096922, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.998771, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.097716, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.155859, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.151243, "excess_performance": -0.338696, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.096922, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018014, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.097716, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131167, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.201559, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066304, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.151243, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.86752, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17015764, "relative_activity": 0.65769, "balance": 0.86752, "dry_up": 0.693984, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08337, "annualized_volatility": 0.431745, "from_high_reference": -0.288482, "from_low_reference": 0.097297 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.982945, "fair_value_reference": 17.998771, "structural_low": 14.8, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.009393, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.01849, "regime_survival": 0.866667, "best_return": 0.323303, "worst_return": -0.341547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.081095, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.025186, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.767606, "worst_return": -0.372194, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.0571, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.156483, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.501716, "worst_return": -0.424242, 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"typical_volume": 28111921.1, "trend": 17.952052, "fair_value": 18.118942, "relative_strength": -15.67216, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.69715, "energy": 25.430208, "activity_lines": [ 16.471333, 16.243702, 16.990012, 17.554309 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.69, "volume": 16179381, "typical_volume": 27370370.3, "trend": 17.967624, "fair_value": 18.07694, "relative_strength": -13.952349, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.712902, "energy": 20.548879, "activity_lines": [ 16.622667, 16.321445, 16.910398, 17.472887 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.06, "volume": 16028097, "typical_volume": 26299634.65, "trend": 18.004082, "fair_value": 18.037563, "relative_strength": -12.278089, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.734857, "energy": 20.865845, "activity_lines": [ 16.804667, 16.476446, 16.874136, 17.41433 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.24, "volume": 17015764, "typical_volume": 25872028.1, "trend": 17.982945, "fair_value": 17.998771, "relative_strength": -20.155859, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.762967, "energy": 19.303818, "activity_lines": [ 16.651333, 16.473952, 16.764062, 17.300518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }