{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e03d7d9-bc23-4ea0-adce-4e61dced4f9d", "symbol": "JMSB", "name": "John Marshall Bancorp Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.075, "architecture_energy": 58.362, "architecture_maturity": 41.186, "architecture_confidence": 78.649, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.01, "rotation_up": 67.94, "upward_expansion": 86.06, "deceleration": 46.77, "rotation_down": 14.14, "downward_expansion": 10.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.778208, 22.388232, 21.886417, 21.443935 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 23.32, "trend_reference": 20.918123, "distance_from_trend": 0.114823, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.935617, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.231542, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.002795, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.126672, "excess_performance": -0.060782, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.114823, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034588, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.231542, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104995, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 2.8e-05, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.097026, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.126672, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.606965, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 148256, "relative_activity": 0.736491, "balance": 3.606965, "dry_up": 0.876586, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056003, "annualized_volatility": 0.140544, "from_high_reference": -0.034703, "from_low_reference": 0.271617 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.918123, "fair_value_reference": 18.935617, "structural_low": 18.937264, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.006007, "positive_rate": 0.451613, "directional_follow_through": 0.451613, "median_excess_return": -0.013148, "regime_survival": 0.741935, "best_return": 0.169668, "worst_return": -0.231105, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.050676, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.056528, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.211282, "worst_return": -0.260376, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.104178, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.027668, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.213122, "worst_return": -0.268828, "sufficient": true }, { 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"energy": 36.849978, "activity_lines": [ 21.825401, 21.625762, 21.25321, 20.919418 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 22.08708, "volume": 188715, "typical_volume": 205789.4, "trend": 20.601485, "fair_value": 18.856485, "relative_strength": -1.573237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.964565, "energy": 37.831617, "activity_lines": [ 21.931385, 21.743897, 21.375777, 21.017227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.24641, "volume": 187558, "typical_volume": 208814.7, "trend": 20.667633, "fair_value": 18.879786, "relative_strength": 0.808569, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.811152, "energy": 36.794533, "activity_lines": [ 22.065342, 21.873195, 21.499372, 21.123351 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.102807, "volume": 181300, "typical_volume": 202294.95, "trend": 20.786119, "fair_value": 18.906358, "relative_strength": 4.086608, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.341203, "energy": 45.164695, "activity_lines": [ 22.422336, 22.129539, 21.691095, 21.280459 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.32, "volume": 148256, "typical_volume": 201300.45, "trend": 20.918123, "fair_value": 18.935617, "relative_strength": 0.002795, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.07519, "energy": 58.361615, "activity_lines": [ 22.778208, 22.388232, 21.886417, 21.443935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }