{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e057c80-a1c1-4e17-8b13-a18486da4a43", "symbol": "4609", "name": "Airlux Electrical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -38.705, "architecture_energy": 24.288, "architecture_maturity": 27.56, "architecture_confidence": 87.297, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.55, "rotation_up": 15.89, "upward_expansion": 11.24, "deceleration": 50.05, "rotation_down": 51.09, "downward_expansion": 70.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.986667, 5.055818, 5.150238, 5.146237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.96, "trend_reference": 5.191, "distance_from_trend": -0.0445, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.111218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.30251, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.79083, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.138889, "excess_performance": -0.580261, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0445, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066982, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.30251, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070587, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.397908, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029168, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.138889, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.790246, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44000, "relative_activity": 0.476488, "balance": 0.790246, "dry_up": 0.3441, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117711, "annualized_volatility": 0.743406, "from_high_reference": -0.378446, "from_low_reference": 0.355191 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.191, "fair_value_reference": 7.111218, "structural_low": 3.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.042387, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.051693, "regime_survival": 0.4375, "best_return": 0.235632, "worst_return": -0.17479, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.007197, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011537, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.302083, "worst_return": -0.153305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.094059, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.023349, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.38244, "worst_return": -0.107579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.071759, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.185543, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.16092, "worst_return": -0.350248, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086402, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067529, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038889, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19591, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019093, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.088506, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.013614, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.01745, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.138889, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026829, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060478, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.17175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166387, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 7.15, "volume": 69000, "typical_volume": 58900.0, "trend": 7.919333, "fair_value": 8.153974, "relative_strength": -18.463447, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.566517, "energy": 41.659556, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -28.49448, "energy": 15.17912, "activity_lines": [ 5.134667, 5.188727, 5.199857, 5.194538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.8, "volume": 32097, "typical_volume": 92692.45, "trend": 5.227667, "fair_value": 7.129103, "relative_strength": -41.056299, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.15644, "energy": 29.420833, "activity_lines": [ 5.017333, 5.097273, 5.166429, 5.163505 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 4.96, "volume": 44000, "typical_volume": 92342.4, "trend": 5.191, "fair_value": 7.111218, "relative_strength": -39.79083, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.705168, "energy": 24.288195, "activity_lines": [ 4.986667, 5.055818, 5.150238, 5.146237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }