{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e09d9d0-bfb5-4a10-952f-1300d26ebfc4", "symbol": "300153", "name": "Shanghai Cooltech Power Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.073, "architecture_energy": 70.614, "architecture_maturity": 37.583, "architecture_confidence": 88.515, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 14.69, "upward_expansion": 15.5, "deceleration": 40.17, "rotation_down": 67.57, "downward_expansion": 88.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.636, 21.568182, 23.966729, 25.836501 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 21.530001, "trend_reference": 28.508706, "distance_from_trend": -0.244792, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.431679, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.107985, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -33.60051, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.355343, "excess_performance": -0.362743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.244792, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090637, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.107985, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.558876, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.336005, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084724, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.355343, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.081757, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 40685556, "relative_activity": 0.656636, "balance": 1.081757, "dry_up": 0.730324, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142259, "annualized_volatility": 0.636734, "from_high_reference": -0.576635, "from_low_reference": 0.156284 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 28.508706, "fair_value_reference": 19.431679, "structural_low": 18.620001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.0104, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.001687, "regime_survival": 0.708333, "best_return": 0.297183, "worst_return": -0.146745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.000883, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.000896, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.424562, "worst_return": -0.219222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048702, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.059639, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 5.915967, "worst_return": -0.175473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 23.91, "volume": 62981794, "typical_volume": 79249493.1, "trend": 29.76696, "fair_value": 19.126156, "relative_strength": -33.184289, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.143039, "energy": 66.416907, "activity_lines": [ 23.511333, 24.795994, 26.590185, 28.174994 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 51286302, "typical_volume": 76236301.65, "trend": 29.399162, "fair_value": 19.199493, "relative_strength": -38.573755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.528387, "energy": 74.101529, "activity_lines": [ 22.220666, 23.620101, 25.764911, 27.531964 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.34, "volume": 49111357, "typical_volume": 69654306.65, "trend": 29.082867, "fair_value": 19.269946, "relative_strength": -39.431515, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.607125, "energy": 74.037234, "activity_lines": [ 21.04, 22.550126, 24.987322, 26.882986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 20.09, "volume": 39921975, "typical_volume": 63750247.7, "trend": 28.757655, "fair_value": 19.34463, "relative_strength": -35.425598, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.281326, "energy": 75.306161, "activity_lines": [ 20.523333, 21.841636, 24.376413, 26.302801 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.530001, "volume": 40685556, "typical_volume": 61960560.15, "trend": 28.508706, "fair_value": 19.431679, "relative_strength": -33.60051, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.073026, "energy": 70.614413, "activity_lines": [ 20.636, 21.568182, 23.966729, 25.836501 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }