{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e0c802f-8dc1-48de-9127-eadb93f51dcb", "symbol": "KEPL3", "name": "Kepler Weber S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -79.257, "architecture_energy": 69.072, "architecture_maturity": 72.418, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.41, "rotation_up": 27.1, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 58.1, "rotation_down": 62.32, "downward_expansion": 87.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.3, 6.402727, 6.721286, 7.13871 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 6.11, "trend_reference": 7.824667, "distance_from_trend": -0.219136, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.339625, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.267353, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -27.517991, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.399213, "excess_performance": -0.342165, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.219136, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.122932, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.267353, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.195278, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.27518, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075915, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.399213, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.391608, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5166600, "relative_activity": 1.085082, "balance": 0.391608, "dry_up": 0.800192, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057409, "annualized_volatility": 0.387524, "from_high_reference": -0.418095, "from_low_reference": 0.011589 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.824667, "fair_value_reference": 8.339625, "structural_low": 6.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.009058, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.027159, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.247965, "worst_return": -0.095116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.052854, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.030621, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.34101, "worst_return": -0.179949, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.326642, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.160651, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.540334, "worst_return": -0.060272, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, 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"activity_lines": [ 6.594667, 6.670909, 7.110571, 7.609978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.35, "volume": 4650100, "typical_volume": 7487245.0, "trend": 8.187333, "fair_value": 8.368255, "relative_strength": -26.441478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.933537, "energy": 67.456501, "activity_lines": [ 6.513333, 6.582364, 6.999952, 7.48443 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.37, "volume": 2365100, "typical_volume": 5860755.0, "trend": 8.074, "fair_value": 8.361416, "relative_strength": -25.93274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.17911, "energy": 65.660866, "activity_lines": [ 6.458, 6.523636, 6.907238, 7.367183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.38, "volume": 3058600, "typical_volume": 5294585.0, "trend": 7.957333, "fair_value": 8.35095, "relative_strength": -27.048543, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.517977, "energy": 64.200156, "activity_lines": [ 6.414667, 6.481636, 6.824, 7.257892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.11, "volume": 5166600, "typical_volume": 4761485.0, "trend": 7.824667, "fair_value": 8.339625, "relative_strength": -27.517991, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.257336, "energy": 69.072172, "activity_lines": [ 6.3, 6.402727, 6.721286, 7.13871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }