{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e0e212d-74cf-4851-a49b-e949a7189d8b", "symbol": "IRB", "name": "IRB Infrastructure Developers Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 74.796, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.771, "architecture_energy": 62.109, "architecture_maturity": 8.61, "architecture_confidence": 79.379, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.01, "rotation_up": 13.09, "upward_expansion": 15.84, "deceleration": 34.79, "rotation_down": 69.79, "downward_expansion": 89.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.803025, 20.220153, 20.666883, 20.800828 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.68, "trend_reference": 20.883292, "distance_from_trend": -0.05762, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.235459, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.187967, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.053699, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.084002, "excess_performance": -0.040293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.05762, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010561, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.187967, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092934, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060537, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066228, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084002, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.159539, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 27305268, "relative_activity": 0.341229, "balance": 2.159539, "dry_up": 0.682125, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.05968, "annualized_volatility": 0.242101, "from_high_reference": -0.176383, "from_low_reference": 0.030058 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.883292, "fair_value_reference": 24.235459, "structural_low": 19.105711, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.00235, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.009832, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.193424, "worst_return": -0.133074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.023981, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.012879, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.387, "worst_return": -0.274594, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.001153, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.055055, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.833167, "worst_return": -0.300763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }