{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9e12024b-d1a6-4696-a671-8035f38fc2b5",
    "symbol": "5299",
    "name": "Excelliance MOS Corporation",
    "exchange": "TWO",
    "country": "TW",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-14",
    "benchmark": "^TWII",
    "stage": 1,
    "stage_name": "Basing",
    "phase": "1b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing",
    "transition": "stage_1_building",
    "transition_label": "Base still building",
    "confidence": 69.642,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 23.738,
    "architecture_energy": 17.128,
    "architecture_maturity": 55.431,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.79,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 56.2,
        "rotation_up": 19.03,
        "upward_expansion": 50.74,
        "deceleration": 93.36,
        "rotation_down": 34.07,
        "downward_expansion": 19.07
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        99.486666,
        103.648184,
        103.394686,
        98.010602
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 100.5,
    "trend_reference": 90.460127,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.110987,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 89.379075,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.124424,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -10.614519,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.429599,
    "excess_performance": -0.011773,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.110987,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.15486,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.124424,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.048382,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.106145,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008461,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.429599,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.999557,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 2095239,
      "relative_activity": 0.496284,
      "balance": 1.999557,
      "dry_up": 0.8405,
      "accumulation_observations": 5,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.17579,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.480174,
      "from_high_reference": -0.26651,
      "from_low_reference": 0.517382
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 90.460127,
      "fair_value_reference": 89.379075,
      "structural_low": 67.878643,
      "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.011174,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.002709,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.083095,
        "worst_return": -0.114943,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.044289,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.069361,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.09322,
        "worst_return": -0.206478,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.011173,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.064965,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.062147,
        "worst_return": -0.08502,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.22079,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.305371,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.118895,
        "worst_return": -0.322685,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-08-25",
        "end": "2023-09-15",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.155251,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2023-09-22",
        "end": "2023-10-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.012146,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-11-03",
        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.135593,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-08",
        "end": "2024-01-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.060606,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-01-19",
        "end": "2024-03-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.012146,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-03-08",
        "end": "2024-03-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.05,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-03-29",
        "end": "2024-06-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.044248,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-07-05",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.10105,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.08134,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.068256,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.07277,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "return": 0.015605,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": true
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    ],
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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      },
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 3704517.4,
        "trend": 87.234401,
        "fair_value": 89.47553,
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        "stage": 1,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "energy": 20.356825,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 104.0,
        "volume": 5308545,
        "typical_volume": 3929749.1,
        "trend": 88.396486,
        "fair_value": 89.461668,
        "relative_strength": -2.711818,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.740513,
        "energy": 20.549421,
        "activity_lines": [
          102.122252,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 99.199997,
        "volume": 5108658,
        "typical_volume": 4152160.35,
        "trend": 89.392115,
        "fair_value": 89.403456,
        "relative_strength": -9.04742,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.081074,
        "energy": 20.93091,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-14",
        "close": 100.5,
        "volume": 2095239,
        "typical_volume": 4221853.35,
        "trend": 90.460127,
        "fair_value": 89.379075,
        "relative_strength": -10.614519,
        "stage": 1,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 23.738169,
        "energy": 17.127883,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}