{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e165c1e-3672-497f-bb97-346183684014", "symbol": "200058", "name": "Shenzhen SEG Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.892, "architecture_energy": 52.71, "architecture_maturity": 85.745, "architecture_confidence": 89.014, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.46, "rotation_up": 27.56, "upward_expansion": 9.08, "deceleration": 60.8, "rotation_down": 48.07, "downward_expansion": 80.08 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.513333, 1.515455, 1.587272, 1.650083 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.55, "trend_reference": 1.730805, "distance_from_trend": -0.104463, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.670613, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.072197, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.160172, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174873, "excess_performance": -0.182272, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.104463, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060215, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.072197, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1478, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.161602, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019834, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174873, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.488481, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1450096, "relative_activity": 1.587886, "balance": 0.488481, "dry_up": 1.212417, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.053027, "annualized_volatility": 0.20157, "from_high_reference": -0.231223, "from_low_reference": 0.099291 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.730805, "fair_value_reference": 1.670613, "structural_low": 1.41, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.007194, "positive_rate": 0.44, "directional_follow_through": 0.56, "median_excess_return": -0.013309, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.190141, "worst_return": -0.08589, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.003693, "positive_rate": 0.363636, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.003895, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.384058, "worst_return": -0.198741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023678, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.068563, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.226615, "worst_return": -0.038972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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66.448339, "activity_lines": [ 1.478, 1.5211, 1.613635, 1.676802 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.53, "volume": 1312254, "typical_volume": 878333.5, "trend": 1.741427, "fair_value": 1.67084, "relative_strength": -13.287981, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.664554, "energy": 61.603017, "activity_lines": [ 1.494667, 1.514364, 1.598695, 1.662434 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.55, "volume": 1450096, "typical_volume": 913224.5, "trend": 1.730805, "fair_value": 1.670613, "relative_strength": -16.160172, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.891814, "energy": 52.709788, "activity_lines": [ 1.513333, 1.515455, 1.587272, 1.650083 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }