{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e1cea4e-aea7-4ca1-830d-3c25b3a27fa7", "symbol": "SPACK", "name": "S. Pack & Print Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 47.911, "architecture_energy": 37.629, "architecture_maturity": 61.783, "architecture_confidence": 42.391, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.04, "rotation_up": 43.92, "upward_expansion": 66.69, "deceleration": 65.43, "rotation_down": 24.02, "downward_expansion": 16.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.393333, 1.397818, 1.314714, 1.275677 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.35, "trend_reference": 1.233, "distance_from_trend": 0.094891, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.601795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.157195, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.837596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.173913, "excess_performance": -0.018412, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.094891, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046393, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.157195, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.154403, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.078376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.12856, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.173913, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.904706, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 276100, "relative_activity": 0.498402, "balance": 0.904706, "dry_up": 1.669134, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079772, "annualized_volatility": 0.439121, "from_high_reference": -0.176829, "from_low_reference": 0.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.233, "fair_value_reference": 1.601795, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.121034, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.156508, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.134409, "worst_return": -0.241706, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.132743, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.179584, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.177419, "worst_return": -0.157576, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.081867, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.156794, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.048387, "worst_return": -0.212121, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.077348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.056818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.086957, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.007092, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072993, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", 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1.290667, 1.228545, 1.197286, 1.189011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.51, "volume": 350900, "typical_volume": 565655.0, "trend": 1.189, "fair_value": 1.62609, "relative_strength": 0.972562, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.752687, "energy": 93.180786, "activity_lines": [ 1.382, 1.286, 1.227619, 1.210387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.44, "volume": 1958200, "typical_volume": 652410.0, "trend": 1.197333, "fair_value": 1.621474, "relative_strength": -3.937516, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.837777, "energy": 87.876163, "activity_lines": [ 1.426, 1.324182, 1.249667, 1.226581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.46, "volume": 2233000, "typical_volume": 760940.0, "trend": 1.207667, "fair_value": 1.616731, "relative_strength": -3.450826, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.622789, "energy": 87.497493, "activity_lines": [ 1.456667, 1.360545, 1.272952, 1.243527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.41, "volume": 1033800, "typical_volume": 802520.0, "trend": 1.217333, "fair_value": 1.611795, "relative_strength": -6.724693, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.667752, "energy": 80.735182, "activity_lines": [ 1.450667, 1.382364, 1.290381, 1.256581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.39, "volume": 155700, "typical_volume": 698415.0, "trend": 1.226667, "fair_value": 1.606859, "relative_strength": -6.402247, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.317, "energy": 52.200275, "activity_lines": [ 1.424, 1.395818, 1.304762, 1.26772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.35, "volume": 276100, "typical_volume": 553970.0, "trend": 1.233, "fair_value": 1.601795, "relative_strength": -7.837596, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.911379, "energy": 37.629258, "activity_lines": [ 1.393333, 1.397818, 1.314714, 1.275677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }