{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e293cde-dbff-4c5b-b9db-9bbad9169a5e", "symbol": "FLXA", "name": "Franklin MSCI World Catholic Principles UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.383, "architecture_energy": 57.533, "architecture_maturity": 82.454, "architecture_confidence": 78.486, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.37, "rotation_up": 52.7, "upward_expansion": 82.5, "deceleration": 68.61, "rotation_down": 28.55, "downward_expansion": 9.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.103999, 33.990999, 33.396595, 32.55486 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.959999, "trend_reference": 31.582666, "distance_from_trend": 0.106936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.259958, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.237086, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 5.389906, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.180284, "excess_performance": 0.115644, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.047582, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.237086, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068598, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053899, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040353, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.180284, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.013155, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9751, "relative_activity": 1.220798, "balance": 7.013155, "dry_up": 0.693154, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02636, "annualized_volatility": 0.15011, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.252373 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.582666, "fair_value_reference": 28.259958, "structural_low": 28.01, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.024106, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.004484, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.029535, "worst_return": -0.004349, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.054379, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.037694, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.08896, "worst_return": 0.019797, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.110518, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.077906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.110518, "worst_return": 0.110518, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014116, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050655, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009033, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048735, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.036653, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031335, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.073545, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-05-03", "close": 23.844999, "volume": 200, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-05-10", "close": 24.52, "volume": 8, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.552017, "energy": 63.688626, "activity_lines": [ 33.936, 33.80409, 33.006452, 32.198139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.314999, "volume": 2355, "typical_volume": 7613.7, "trend": 31.432166, "fair_value": 28.203178, "relative_strength": 3.381385, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.834307, "energy": 46.951981, "activity_lines": [ 33.736333, 33.75109, 33.132809, 32.327258 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.959999, "volume": 9751, "typical_volume": 7987.4, "trend": 31.582666, "fair_value": 28.259958, "relative_strength": 5.389906, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.382732, "energy": 57.533067, "activity_lines": [ 34.103999, 33.990999, 33.396595, 32.55486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }