{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e2d73b5-0160-4b55-b168-16f4a4f3df08", "symbol": "LG01", "name": "Legal & General UCITS ETF Plc - L&G Battery Value-Chain UCITS ETF", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 56.308, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -30.68, "architecture_energy": 68.136, "architecture_maturity": 11.066, "architecture_confidence": 81.972, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.19, "rotation_up": 14.12, "upward_expansion": 31.01, "deceleration": 49.1, "rotation_down": 74.56, "downward_expansion": 60.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.099001, 28.297819, 30.102334, 30.00243 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 27.700001, "trend_reference": 29.572667, "distance_from_trend": -0.063324, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.305295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.43484, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.947919, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037065, "excess_performance": -0.137182, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.063324, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057715, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.43484, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.47597, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139479, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.445076, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037065, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.062992, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.062992, "dry_up": 1.269775, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063718, "annualized_volatility": 0.328113, "from_high_reference": -0.219168, "from_low_reference": 0.538376 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.572667, "fair_value_reference": 19.305295, "structural_low": 25.165001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.027269, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.000899, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.11043, "worst_return": -0.067485, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.030117, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.053568, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.087702, "worst_return": -0.070103, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.172476, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.223449, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.36969, "worst_return": -0.043955, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.084284, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.093306, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.242709, "worst_return": -0.086291, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.054099, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036289, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021915, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017316, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030427, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.140631, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.124926, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070906, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049096, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.423402, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097768, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005637, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.182369, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032619, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 16.062, "volume": 500, "typical_volume": 105.7, "trend": 16.945267, "fair_value": 15.167045, "relative_strength": -1.851853, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.959776, 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.945797, "energy": 40.431107, "activity_lines": [ 32.916333, 33.185273, 31.756714, 30.542892 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 29.82, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 90.1, "trend": 29.063, "fair_value": 18.915333, "relative_strength": -2.599, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.606198, "energy": 22.462538, "activity_lines": [ 31.811333, 32.574636, 31.70619, 30.603236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 30.455, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 90.1, "trend": 29.256333, "fair_value": 18.994237, "relative_strength": -3.330567, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.100826, "energy": 25.251063, "activity_lines": [ 31.168, 32.117818, 31.701333, 30.693043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 28.77, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 89.6, "trend": 29.390833, "fair_value": 19.062455, "relative_strength": -7.82536, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -14.240435, "energy": 27.144647, "activity_lines": [ 30.217333, 31.392091, 31.520928, 30.661667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.99, "volume": 610, "typical_volume": 120.1, "trend": 29.471333, "fair_value": 19.119699, "relative_strength": -12.054271, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.792567, "energy": 50.224493, "activity_lines": [ 28.936333, 30.432, 31.165833, 30.506774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.825001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 120.1, "trend": 29.5205, "fair_value": 19.177346, "relative_strength": -13.911954, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.863436, "energy": 70.597858, "activity_lines": [ 27.941667, 29.584909, 30.803238, 30.336043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.190001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 120.1, "trend": 29.5405, "fair_value": 19.235, "relative_strength": -16.057846, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -45.383943, "energy": 75.835322, "activity_lines": [ 27.147667, 28.737, 30.378452, 30.121172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.700001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 120.1, "trend": 29.572667, "fair_value": 19.305295, "relative_strength": -13.947919, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.679783, "energy": 68.135892, "activity_lines": [ 27.099001, 28.297819, 30.102334, 30.00243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }