{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e320e7d-57a2-4e01-8792-f189ab2aeef9", "symbol": "CNTX", "name": "Context Therapeutics Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.878, "architecture_energy": 67.427, "architecture_maturity": 47.647, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.52, "rotation_up": 25.72, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 55.92, "rotation_down": 65.27, "downward_expansion": 90.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.56752, 0.641436, 1.194376, 1.558234 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.484, "trend_reference": 1.899867, "distance_from_trend": -0.745245, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.393068, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.652565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -73.174881, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.787719, "excess_performance": -0.975173, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.745245, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068388, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.652565, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.361805, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.731749, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.12955, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.787719, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.223811, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 12531342, "relative_activity": 1.373175, "balance": 0.223811, "dry_up": 0.977856, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.757692, "annualized_volatility": 1.492871, "from_high_reference": -0.866298, "from_low_reference": 0.008333 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.899867, "fair_value_reference": 1.393068, "structural_low": 0.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.116517, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.145167, "regime_survival": 0.769231, "best_return": 0.554314, "worst_return": -0.26936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.112245, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.039048, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.940802, "worst_return": -0.465733, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.659585, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.531304, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.0, "worst_return": -0.557267, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.173913, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.406667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001189, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.017796, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1981, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.422018, 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"trend": 1.969087, "fair_value": 1.400482, "relative_strength": -64.310178, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.61131, "energy": 86.038578, "activity_lines": [ 0.621107, 0.856175, 1.438646, 1.740369 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.5994, "volume": 7136206, "typical_volume": 8724737.2, "trend": 1.9374, "fair_value": 1.397337, "relative_strength": -65.24449, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.738161, "energy": 71.652878, "activity_lines": [ 0.614193, 0.741109, 1.315433, 1.652002 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.484, "volume": 12531342, "typical_volume": 9125818.2, "trend": 1.899867, "fair_value": 1.393068, "relative_strength": -73.174881, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.878055, "energy": 67.427457, "activity_lines": [ 0.56752, 0.641436, 1.194376, 1.558234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }