{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e3e52f6-c4ee-45a4-b9f6-6e0e296c4499", "symbol": "PWER", "name": "NOMURA ENERGY TRANSITION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.133, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.108, "architecture_energy": 27.853, "architecture_maturity": 32.351, "architecture_confidence": 60.861, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.1, "rotation_up": 50.85, "upward_expansion": 59.72, "deceleration": 66.34, "rotation_down": 20.65, "downward_expansion": 19.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.21622, 41.749653, 42.123931, 41.771408 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 43.9874, "trend_reference": 41.09364, "distance_from_trend": 0.070419, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 30.778163, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.429176, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.563477, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.12481, "excess_performance": -0.000814, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.070419, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064887, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.429176, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.028472, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.045635, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086383, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.12481, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.651836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4215, "relative_activity": 1.163384, "balance": 0.651836, "dry_up": 0.765791, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037256, "annualized_volatility": 0.183718, "from_high_reference": -0.054729, "from_low_reference": 0.525027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 41.09364, "fair_value_reference": 30.778163, "structural_low": 37.9338, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.050329, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.0006, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.053542, "worst_return": 0.047116, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.013982, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.152506, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.013982, "worst_return": -0.013982, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.071613, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.368948, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027526, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009174, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": 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41.383457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 40.373, "volume": 946, "typical_volume": 4030.8, "trend": 40.223039, "fair_value": 30.452202, "relative_strength": -0.368676, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.872929, "energy": 24.945459, "activity_lines": [ 40.927619, 41.932771, 42.000492, 41.405512 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.4, "volume": 1698, "typical_volume": 3827.25, "trend": 40.418627, "fair_value": 30.524288, "relative_strength": 0.987591, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.255736, "energy": 28.242149, "activity_lines": [ 40.550662, 41.547853, 41.889971, 41.416929 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.3939, "volume": 2642, "typical_volume": 3814.25, "trend": 40.623157, "fair_value": 30.602487, "relative_strength": 3.72501, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.384647, "energy": 22.321909, "activity_lines": [ 40.723333, 41.393814, 41.877813, 41.47985 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.9879, "volume": 2543, "typical_volume": 3683.75, "trend": 40.832984, "fair_value": 30.683811, "relative_strength": 3.709957, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.754283, "energy": 13.215262, "activity_lines": [ 41.170647, 41.375954, 41.912721, 41.567898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.9874, "volume": 4215, "typical_volume": 3623.05, "trend": 41.09364, "fair_value": 30.778163, "relative_strength": 4.563477, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.107644, "energy": 27.852728, "activity_lines": [ 42.21622, 41.749653, 42.123931, 41.771408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }