{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e4004ae-9ac7-4fee-ad8b-426716ed9b5b", "symbol": "002574", "name": "Zhejiang Ming Jewelry Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.516, "architecture_energy": 48.36, "architecture_maturity": 86.808, "architecture_confidence": 69.496, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.87, "rotation_up": 26.27, "upward_expansion": 19.53, "deceleration": 66.83, "rotation_down": 48.94, "downward_expansion": 71.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.392, 4.385455, 4.691762, 4.982925 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.56, "trend_reference": 5.381667, "distance_from_trend": -0.152679, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.413798, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.157708, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.058481, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.305936, "excess_performance": -0.313336, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.152679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077587, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.157708, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.211944, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.210585, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007771, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.305936, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.278914, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 38295443, "relative_activity": 1.146034, "balance": 0.278914, "dry_up": 1.23092, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079116, "annualized_volatility": 0.275853, "from_high_reference": -0.407022, "from_low_reference": 0.145729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.381667, "fair_value_reference": 5.413798, "structural_low": 3.98, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.01787, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008502, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.296375, "worst_return": -0.232406, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.069086, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.037295, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.41688, "worst_return": -0.220513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.256851, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.098963, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.40257, "worst_return": -0.133663, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"relative_strength": -27.083224, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.777356, "energy": 71.434162, "activity_lines": [ 4.232667, 4.393818, 4.796571, 5.101914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.47, "volume": 35229886, "typical_volume": 33387108.65, "trend": 5.417, "fair_value": 5.427388, "relative_strength": -19.210717, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.563839, "energy": 61.010645, "activity_lines": [ 4.304, 4.373636, 4.736286, 5.038215 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.56, "volume": 38295443, "typical_volume": 33415627.75, "trend": 5.381667, "fair_value": 5.413798, "relative_strength": -21.058481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.516035, "energy": 48.359914, "activity_lines": [ 4.392, 4.385455, 4.691762, 4.982925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }