{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e436f88-ef46-49aa-ab44-4043c134b52e", "symbol": "3234", "name": "TrueLight Corporation", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.424, "architecture_energy": 18.591, "architecture_maturity": 51.098, "architecture_confidence": 95.891, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.78, "rotation_up": 30.24, "upward_expansion": 52.52, "deceleration": 89.16, "rotation_down": 29.27, "downward_expansion": 20.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 114.339999, 115.910909, 115.160476, 110.321182 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 136.5, "trend_reference": 100.108333, "distance_from_trend": 0.363523, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 50.471474, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.704498, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 43.581876, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 1.109737, "excess_performance": 0.668365, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.363523, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.337274, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.704498, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.447863, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.435819, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141748, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.109737, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.854456, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 21963485, "relative_activity": 1.550741, "balance": 1.854456, "dry_up": 0.744078, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.187771, "annualized_volatility": 1.033186, "from_high_reference": -0.096026, "from_low_reference": 3.403226 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.108333, "fair_value_reference": 50.471474, "structural_low": 69.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.076443, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.085818, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.394402, "worst_return": -0.242116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.03147, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030006, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.134122, "worst_return": -0.055324, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.060465, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.051828, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.530572, "worst_return": -0.079349, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.077294, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004402, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.427223, "worst_return": -0.272635, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-09", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.353623, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.309257, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.043056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.394402, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003846, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053156, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.082418, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.210918, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.074355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.171146, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.273224, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098655, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.269767, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 25.4, "volume": 3012000, "typical_volume": 5673401.3, "trend": 23.167269, "fair_value": 27.369209, "relative_strength": 2.535572, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", 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"2026-07-24", "close": 107.5, "volume": 7690932, "typical_volume": 15687641.45, "trend": 93.496667, "fair_value": 48.864744, "relative_strength": 22.28759, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.764407, "energy": 16.385948, "activity_lines": [ 113.3, 118.281818, 114.187143, 106.830215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.699997, "volume": 4130960, "typical_volume": 15294990.55, "trend": 95.063333, "fair_value": 49.282051, "relative_strength": 9.478997, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.965743, "energy": 14.812376, "activity_lines": [ 105.999999, 114.199999, 112.880952, 106.972365 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 107.5, "volume": 8368770, "typical_volume": 14254057.65, "trend": 97.03, "fair_value": 49.772436, "relative_strength": 18.862239, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.980469, "energy": 16.696593, "activity_lines": [ 104.653333, 112.414545, 112.662381, 107.774731 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 136.5, "volume": 21963485, "typical_volume": 14163218.4, "trend": 100.108333, "fair_value": 50.471474, "relative_strength": 43.581876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.42359, "energy": 18.590731, "activity_lines": [ 114.339999, 115.910909, 115.160476, 110.321182 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }