{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9e46e4d4-5b09-4143-bce1-ecaf4bf1c243", "symbol": "TIN", "name": "Cornish Metals plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 63.355, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.119, "architecture_energy": 19.998, "architecture_maturity": 8.454, "architecture_confidence": 77.899, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.74, "rotation_up": 40.65, "upward_expansion": 33.63, "deceleration": 40.43, "rotation_down": 25.38, "downward_expansion": 19.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 112.766667, 112.809091, 109.421429, 109.413978 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 113.0, "trend_reference": 111.75, "distance_from_trend": 0.011186, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 90.840064, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.243945, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.018911, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.192857, "excess_performance": -0.244092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011186, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.095696, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.243945, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.153535, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.070189, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02337, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.192857, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881852, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 585301, "relative_activity": 0.807026, "balance": 0.881852, "dry_up": 0.852711, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047277, "annualized_volatility": 0.411587, "from_high_reference": -0.246667, "from_low_reference": 0.614286 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 111.75, "fair_value_reference": 90.840064, "structural_low": 87.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.035714, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.044618, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.382514, "worst_return": -0.311321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.148936, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.13143, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.194853, "worst_return": -0.462264, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.170213, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.172288, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.401274, "worst_return": -0.35443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.405063, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.454076, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.001272, "worst_return": -0.455319, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045455, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006803, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.06962, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", 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repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.961207, "energy": 50.16426, "activity_lines": [ 113.033333, 108.390909, 106.62381, 108.375484 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 112.5, "volume": 822378, "typical_volume": 810666.5, "trend": 108.59, "fair_value": 91.298397, "relative_strength": 12.539304, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 29.910402, "energy": 48.933366, "activity_lines": [ 113.0, 109.736364, 107.128571, 108.701935 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 112.5, "volume": 802063, "typical_volume": 796512.6, "trend": 109.606667, "fair_value": 91.266346, "relative_strength": 11.084714, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.29373, "energy": 41.355854, "activity_lines": [ 112.8, 110.854545, 107.695238, 108.954194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 113.0, "volume": 566474, "typical_volume": 771955.4, "trend": 110.533333, "fair_value": 91.157372, "relative_strength": 9.668666, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 19.601719, "energy": 29.042418, "activity_lines": [ 112.733333, 111.836364, 108.347619, 109.173118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 112.5, "volume": 519900, "typical_volume": 723767.85, "trend": 111.233333, "fair_value": 90.997115, "relative_strength": 7.320668, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.707041, "energy": 21.347893, "activity_lines": [ 112.633333, 112.436364, 108.885714, 109.3 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 113.0, "volume": 585301, "typical_volume": 725256.65, "trend": 111.75, "fair_value": 90.840064, "relative_strength": 7.018911, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.119158, "energy": 19.997616, "activity_lines": [ 112.766667, 112.809091, 109.421429, 109.413978 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }